Prediction: Benfica vs Guimaraes
Team pages: Benfica · Guimaraes
- Benfica3-0Guimaraes
- Guimaraes0-3Benfica
- Guimaraes0-3Benfica
- Benfica1-0Guimaraes
- Guimaraes2-2Benfica
- Benfica4-0Guimaraes
| Benfica | Draw | Guimaraes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Market | 77% | 16% | 8% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Benfica (rating 1643 vs 1445).
- H2H favours Benfica: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Benfica | Guimaraes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 0.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 7.7 | 3 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Benfica 5–1–0 Guimaraes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Guimaraes |
| 01/11/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Guimaraes | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Benfica |
| 19/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Guimaraes | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Benfica |
| 07/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Guimaraes |
| 11/02/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Guimaraes | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Benfica |
| 02/09/23 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Guimaraes |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 21 |
| 2 | Sporting | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| 8 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| 9 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
| 14 | Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Benfica | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Casa Pia | 7-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Academico Viseu | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Braga | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Benfica (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Benfica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 13/09 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 14 | 5 | W |
| 09/09 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 17/08 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 7-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
Guimaraes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 12/09 | Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 17 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/08 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 08/08 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 11/05 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 04/05 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 1-5 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Benfica vs Guimaraes?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Benfica win (77%). Probabilities: Benfica 77%, draw 16%, Guimaraes 8%.
How many goals are expected in Benfica vs Guimaraes?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Benfica 2.59 · Guimaraes 0.74), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Guimaraes?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.