Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 10/10, 16:30

Prediction: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara

Team pages: Casa Pia · Santa Clara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Casa Pia0.83

Santa Clara1.43

1X2

21% 29% 50%

Casa Pia Draw Santa Clara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Casa Pia 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLLDLW

Santa Clara 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWLDWWDWWD

Head-to-head

Casa Pia 1–2–3 Santa Clara (6 last)

Casa Pia0-0Santa Clara
Santa Clara1-0Casa Pia
Santa Clara2-1Casa Pia
Casa Pia0-2Santa Clara
Casa Pia2-1Santa Clara
Santa Clara0-0Casa Pia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Casa Pia 1422 · Santa Clara 1579

	Casa Pia	Draw	Santa Clara
Our model	20%	29%	50%
Market	21%	29%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santa Clara (rating 1422 vs 1579).
H2H favours Santa Clara: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Casa Pia	Santa Clara
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.8	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	1.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.20

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.10

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.37 ★
2	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:03 +48’	4.50	3.20	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:34 +617’	4.31	3.31	1.93
05:24 +49’	4.30▼	3.37▲	1.91▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Casa Pia 1–2–3 Santa Clara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	0-0 HT 0-0	Santa Clara
06/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	1-0 HT 1-0	Casa Pia
01/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	2-1 HT 0-1	Casa Pia
24/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	0-2 HT 0-0	Santa Clara
29/01/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	2-1 HT 0-0	Santa Clara
07/08/22 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	0-0 HT 0-0	Casa Pia

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	16
3	Sporting	7	4	3	0	17	8	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	11
6	Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5	8	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Casa Pia	Santa Clara
FC Porto	1-4 L	0-1 L
Rio Ave	1-1 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Clara (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Casa Pia

LWDLLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
12/09	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
06/09	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
24/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
17/08	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-7	1	3	L
08/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
16/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	9	1	D
11/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	7	12	L

Santa Clara

DWLDWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
13/09	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
29/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
23/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
15/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
10/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
11/05	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/05	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Santa Clara win (50%). Probabilities: Casa Pia 21%, draw 29%, Santa Clara 50%.

How many goals are expected in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Casa Pia 0.83 · Santa Clara 1.43), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.