Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 11/10, 21:30

Prediction: Arouca vs Estrela

Team pages: Arouca · Estrela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Arouca1.86

Estrela1.33

1X2

48% 26% 26%

Arouca Draw Estrela

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Arouca 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWDLD

Estrela 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDDWDWDL

Head-to-head

Arouca 3–1–2 Estrela (6 last)

Arouca1-0Estrela
Estrela3-1Arouca
Arouca1-0Estrela
Estrela2-1Arouca
Arouca0-0Estrela
Estrela1-4Arouca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arouca 1539 · Estrela 1511

	Arouca	Draw	Estrela
Our model	49%	25%	26%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Arouca: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arouca	Estrela
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.2	1.5 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 11:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.07 ★
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.46
2	3.20 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 5.7% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +18’	2.15	3.30	3.20
20:26 +3’	2.10▼	3.30	3.30▲
04:28 +6’	2.10	3.30	3.50▲
05:18 +15’	2.00▼	3.40▲	3.80▲
09:35 +14’	1.95▼	3.40	3.80
11:04 +51’	2.00▲	3.40	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:34 +215’	2.17	3.53	3.25
16:02 +23’	2.18▲	3.53	3.24▼
06:52 +50’	2.07▼	3.56▲	3.47▲
23:00 +45’	2.08▲	3.53▼	3.48▲
23:42 +29’	2.08	3.55▲	3.47▼
05:05 +27’	2.01▼	3.50▼	3.75▲
05:56 +24’	2.04▲	3.50	3.64▼
08:06 +31’	1.98▼	3.55▲	3.77▲
09:44 +4’	2.09▲	3.46▼	3.54▼
10:44 +71’	2.05▼	3.49▲	3.62▲
12:56 +318’	2.07▲	3.46▼	3.59▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arouca 3–1–2 Estrela

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	1-0 HT 0-0	Estrela
07/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	3-1 HT 2-0	Arouca
19/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	1-0 HT 0-0	Estrela
09/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	2-1 HT 0-1	Arouca
05/05/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	0-0 HT 0-0	Estrela
28/12/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estrela	1-4 HT 1-0	Arouca

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	21
2	Sporting	8	5	3	0	20	9	18
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	16
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	11
6	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6	5	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	11
8	Braga	7	3	2	2	8	8	11
9	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	10
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5	8	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arouca	Estrela
Sporting	2-2 D	2-2 D
Moreirense	4-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Arouca (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arouca

DWWWWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	2-2	2	9	D
13/09	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
07/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
23/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
16/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	5	7	W
08/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
16/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
11/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	3-1	2	3	W
02/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	5	6	D

Estrela

LDDDDWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
14/09	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-3	5	5	D
10/09	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
30/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
15/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	0	7	D
08/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
16/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
11/05	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
02/05	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	2-1	2-3	4	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arouca vs Estrela?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arouca win (48%). Probabilities: Arouca 48%, draw 26%, Estrela 26%.

How many goals are expected in Arouca vs Estrela?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Arouca 1.86 · Estrela 1.33), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arouca vs Estrela?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.