Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 09/10, 21:15

Prediction: Braga vs Sporting

Team pages: Braga · Sporting

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Braga1.14

Sporting1.47

1X2

28% 29% 43%

Braga Draw Sporting

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Braga 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDDWWLWD

Sporting 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWDD

Head-to-head

Braga 1–3–2 Sporting (6 last)

Braga2-2Sporting
Sporting1-1Braga
Sporting1-1Braga
Braga2-4Sporting
Sporting5-0Braga
Braga1-0Sporting

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Braga 1538 · Sporting 1613

	Braga	Draw	Sporting
Our model	28%	28%	43%
Market	28%	29%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting (rating 1538 vs 1613).
H2H favours Sporting: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Braga	Sporting
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	2.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	1.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	3.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.25

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.41
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.44 ★
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:50 +4’	3.30	3.25	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:15 +279’	3.41	3.44	2.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Braga 1–3–2 Sporting

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	2-2 HT 1-2	Sporting
05/10/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	1-1 HT 1-0	Braga
07/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	1-1 HT 1-0	Braga
10/11/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	2-4 HT 2-0	Sporting
11/02/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	5-0 HT 2-0	Braga
23/01/24 Portugal League Cup	Braga	1-0 HT 0-0	Sporting

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	16
3	Sporting	7	4	3	0	17	8	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	11
6	Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5	8	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Braga	Sporting
Estrela	1-2 L	2-2 D
Alverca	2-1 W	3-1 W
Guimaraes	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Braga

LDDDDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
14/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
10/09	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	9	3	L
05/09	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
31/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
09/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
16/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
11/05	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	5	D
03/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
26/04	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-2	1	8	L

Sporting

WWWDWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-2	4	9	D
13/09	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
05/09	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	12	3	W
28/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	4-0	4-0	3	2	W
22/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
14/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-2	5	8	W
08/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	3-0	6	1	W
11/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	2-1	4-1	6	7	W
04/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	5-1	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Braga vs Sporting?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sporting win (43%). Probabilities: Braga 28%, draw 29%, Sporting 43%.

How many goals are expected in Braga vs Sporting?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Braga 1.14 · Sporting 1.47), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Braga vs Sporting?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.