Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 11/10, 16:30

Prediction: Rio Ave vs Nacional

Team pages: Rio Ave · Nacional

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Rio Ave1.44

Nacional1.15

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Rio Ave Draw Nacional

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Rio Ave 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLDLLWLLDL

Nacional 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Rio Ave 2–2–2 Nacional (6 last)

Nacional4-0Rio Ave
Rio Ave1-1Nacional
Nacional3-3Rio Ave
Rio Ave2-1Nacional
Nacional2-0Rio Ave
Rio Ave1-0Nacional

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rio Ave 1441 · Nacional 1425

	Rio Ave	Draw	Nacional
Our model	43%	29%	29%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rio Ave	Nacional
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.6	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.34 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.25
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +8’	2.20	3.20	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:34 +505’	2.22	3.25	3.42
02:25 +21’	2.34▲	3.25	3.19▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rio Ave 2–2–2 Nacional

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	4-0 HT 1-0	Rio Ave
17/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	1-1 HT 1-0	Nacional
10/05/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	3-3 HT 0-3	Rio Ave
29/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	2-1 HT 1-1	Nacional
10/04/22 Portugal Segunda Liga	Nacional	2-0 HT 0-0	Rio Ave
28/11/21 Portugal Segunda Liga	Rio Ave	1-0 HT 0-0	Nacional

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	16
3	Sporting	7	4	3	0	17	8	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	11
6	Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	10
9	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5	8	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rio Ave	Nacional
Alverca	0-1 L	1-3 L
Estrela	3-3 D	2-3 L
Santa Clara	0-4 L	2-2 D
Sporting	0-4 L	0-2 L
Estoril	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rio Ave

DLDLLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
14/09	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
06/09	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
28/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-4	0-4	2	2	L
22/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
15/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
09/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
16/05	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	0	1	D
11/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	1-4	5	7	L
03/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	9	3	D

Nacional

LLWDWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	0-4	7	6	L
12/09	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	1-3	2	3	L
05/09	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
30/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
23/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
16/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
10/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
11/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
02/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	8	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rio Ave vs Nacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rio Ave win (42%). Probabilities: Rio Ave 42%, draw 29%, Nacional 29%.

How many goals are expected in Rio Ave vs Nacional?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Rio Ave 1.44 · Nacional 1.15), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Rio Ave vs Nacional?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.