Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 28/09, 19:00

Prediction: NK Rudar Velenje vs ND Dravinja

Team pages: NK Rudar Velenje · ND Dravinja

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

NK Rudar Velenje2.09

ND Dravinja1.08

1X2

60% 22% 18%

NK Rudar Velenje Draw ND Dravinja

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Rudar Velenje 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLWLWW

ND Dravinja 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLLLLDLW

Head-to-head

NK Rudar Velenje 2–2–2 ND Dravinja (6 last)

NK Rudar Velenje1-1ND Dravinja
ND Dravinja1-0NK Rudar Velenje
ND Dravinja0-1NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje1-2ND Dravinja
ND Dravinja0-0NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje1-0ND Dravinja

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Rudar Velenje 1497 · ND Dravinja 1489

	NK Rudar Velenje	Draw	ND Dravinja
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Rudar Velenje	ND Dravinja
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 7	1.5 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:21 +12’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Rudar Velenje 2–2–2 ND Dravinja

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	1-1 HT 1-1	ND Dravinja
11/10/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Rudar Velenje
11/05/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Rudar Velenje
04/11/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	1-2 HT 0-1	ND Dravinja
12/05/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Rudar Velenje
21/10/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	1-0 HT 1-0	ND Dravinja

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	7	5	1	1	17	6	16
2	NK Triglav Kranj	7	5	0	2	13	4	15
3	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	7	4	1	2	13	5	13
4	ND Beltinci	7	4	1	2	16	9	13
5	NK Jesenice	7	4	1	2	11	8	13
6	NK Vrhnika	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
7	NK Rudar Velenje	7	4	0	3	15	12	12
8	NK Bilje	7	4	0	3	14	14	12
9	NK Bistrica	7	3	1	3	9	12	10
10	ND Slovan Ljubljana	7	3	1	3	8	14	10
11	Jadran Dekani	7	2	3	2	5	4	9
12	NK Krka	7	2	1	4	8	11	7
13	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	7	2	1	4	8	13	7
14	NK Krsko	7	1	2	4	5	14	5
15	ND Dravinja	7	1	1	5	7	17	4
16	NK Brezice	7	0	1	6	7	16	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Rudar Velenje	ND Dravinja
NK Brezice	4-3 W	1-1 D
NK Triglav Kranj	2-0 W	1-4 L
NK Vrhnika	2-4 L	0-2 L
NK Bilje	4-1 W	1-3 L
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-2 L	0-1 L
Tabor Sezana	0-2 L	1-5 L
NK Jesenice	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: NK Rudar Velenje (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Rudar Velenje

LDLLWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	4-3	7	4	W
13/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
04/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	2-4	9	2	L
29/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-1	8	3	W
22/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
14/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
07/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
23/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
15/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
10/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

ND Dravinja

DWWLLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
11/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-5	1	6	L
05/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	1	6	L
22/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
09/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
23/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/05	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Rudar Velenje vs ND Dravinja?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Rudar Velenje win (60%). Probabilities: NK Rudar Velenje 60%, draw 22%, ND Dravinja 18%.

How many goals are expected in NK Rudar Velenje vs ND Dravinja?

The model expects 3.17 goals (NK Rudar Velenje 2.09 · ND Dravinja 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Rudar Velenje vs ND Dravinja?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.