Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 04/10, 15:00

Prediction: NK Bistrica vs NK Rudar Velenje

Team pages: NK Bistrica · NK Rudar Velenje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

NK Bistrica1.56

NK Rudar Velenje1.67

1X2

35% 25% 40%

NK Bistrica Draw NK Rudar Velenje

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Bistrica 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWLWLL

NK Rudar Velenje 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWLWWW

Head-to-head

NK Bistrica 3–3–0 NK Rudar Velenje (6 last)

NK Rudar Velenje0-0NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica3-1NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje2-2NK Bistrica
NK Bistrica2-1NK Rudar Velenje
NK Bistrica5-1NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje0-0NK Bistrica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Bistrica 1551 · NK Rudar Velenje 1522

	NK Bistrica	Draw	NK Rudar Velenje
Our model	35%	25%	40%
Market	35%	25%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Bistrica: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Bistrica	NK Rudar Velenje
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.5	3.1 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:39 +6’	2.55	3.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Bistrica 3–3–0 NK Rudar Velenje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/11/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Bistrica
08/08/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	3-1 HT 2-0	NK Rudar Velenje
28/03/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	2-2 HT 1-1	NK Bistrica
14/09/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	2-1 HT 0-0	NK Rudar Velenje
06/11/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Bistrica	5-1 HT 2-1	NK Rudar Velenje
30/07/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Bistrica

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	8	6	1	1	18	6	19
2	ND Beltinci	8	5	1	2	19	9	16
3	NK Triglav Kranj	8	5	1	2	14	5	16
4	NK Jesenice	8	5	1	2	16	8	16
5	NK Rudar Velenje	8	5	0	3	18	13	15
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	8	4	1	3	13	6	13
7	NK Vrhnika	8	4	1	3	10	12	13
8	ND Slovan Ljubljana	8	4	1	3	9	14	13
9	NK Bilje	8	4	0	4	15	17	12
10	Jadran Dekani	8	3	3	2	6	4	12
11	NK Bistrica	8	3	1	4	9	13	10
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	8	2	2	4	9	14	8
13	NK Krsko	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
14	NK Krka	8	2	1	5	8	14	7
15	ND Dravinja	8	1	1	6	8	20	4
16	NK Brezice	8	0	1	7	7	17	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Bistrica	NK Rudar Velenje
Tabor Sezana	0-1 L	0-2 L
ND Dravinja	1-3 L	3-1 W
NK Brezice	2-1 W	4-3 W
NK Triglav Kranj	0-1 L	2-0 W
NK Vrhnika	2-0 W	2-4 L
NK Bilje	4-1 W	4-1 W
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-6 L	0-2 L
NK Krka	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Rudar Velenje (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Bistrica

WWDLWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
20/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
12/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
04/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
29/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
22/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	4-1	5	7	W
15/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-6	3	1	L
07/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
23/05	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/05	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	2	7	W

NK Rudar Velenje

DLLWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
19/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	4-3	7	4	W
13/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
04/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	2-4	9	2	L
29/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-1	8	3	W
22/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
14/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
07/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
23/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
15/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-2	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Bistrica vs NK Rudar Velenje?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Rudar Velenje win (40%). Probabilities: NK Bistrica 35%, draw 25%, NK Rudar Velenje 40%.

How many goals are expected in NK Bistrica vs NK Rudar Velenje?

The model expects 3.24 goals (NK Bistrica 1.56 · NK Rudar Velenje 1.67), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Bistrica vs NK Rudar Velenje?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.