Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: ND Dravinja vs ND Slovan Ljubljana

Team pages: ND Dravinja · ND Slovan Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

ND Dravinja1.5

ND Slovan Ljubljana1.37

1X2

39% 27% 34%

ND Dravinja Draw ND Slovan Ljubljana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Dravinja 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLDLWL

ND Slovan Ljubljana 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLDLW

Head-to-head

ND Dravinja 3–1 ND Slovan Ljubljana (4 last)

ND Dravinja2-1ND Slovan Ljubljana
ND Slovan Ljubljana0-1ND Dravinja
ND Slovan Ljubljana2-1ND Dravinja
ND Dravinja1-0ND Slovan Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Dravinja 1480 · ND Slovan Ljubljana 1498

	ND Dravinja	Draw	ND Slovan Ljubljana
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours ND Dravinja: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Dravinja	ND Slovan Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.1	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	5.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.40

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +12’	2.25	3.40	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ND Dravinja 3–0–1 ND Slovan Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	2-1 HT 1-0	ND Slovan Ljubljana
03/10/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	0-1 HT 0-1	ND Dravinja
05/04/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	2-1 HT 1-0	ND Dravinja
22/09/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Dravinja	1-0 HT 0-0	ND Slovan Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	8	6	1	1	18	6	19
2	ND Beltinci	8	5	1	2	19	9	16
3	NK Triglav Kranj	8	5	1	2	14	5	16
4	NK Jesenice	8	5	1	2	16	8	16
5	NK Rudar Velenje	8	5	0	3	18	13	15
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	8	4	1	3	13	6	13
7	NK Vrhnika	8	4	1	3	10	12	13
8	ND Slovan Ljubljana	8	4	1	3	9	14	13
9	NK Bilje	8	4	0	4	15	17	12
10	Jadran Dekani	8	3	3	2	6	4	12
11	NK Bistrica	8	3	1	4	9	13	10
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	8	2	2	4	9	14	8
13	NK Krsko	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
14	NK Krka	8	2	1	5	8	14	7
15	ND Dravinja	8	1	1	6	8	20	4
16	NK Brezice	8	0	1	7	7	17	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Dravinja	ND Slovan Ljubljana
NK Bistrica	3-1 W	0-1 L
Tabor Sezana	1-5 L	5-1 W
NK Brezice	1-1 D	1-0 W
NK Triglav Kranj	1-4 L	0-3 L
NK Vrhnika	0-2 L	0-0 D
NK Bilje	1-3 L	0-4 L
ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: ND Slovan Ljubljana (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Dravinja

WWLLLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-3	6	6	L
20/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
11/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-5	1	6	L
05/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	1	6	L
22/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
16/08	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
09/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
23/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/05	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-1	3	5	W

ND Slovan Ljubljana

WLLWWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
20/09	NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
12/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
05/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
28/08	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
21/08	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	0	5	W
15/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	3-1	1	7	W
08/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	8	7	L
23/05	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
17/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	5-1	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Dravinja vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ND Dravinja win (39%). Probabilities: ND Dravinja 39%, draw 27%, ND Slovan Ljubljana 34%.

How many goals are expected in ND Dravinja vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

The model expects 2.87 goals (ND Dravinja 1.5 · ND Slovan Ljubljana 1.37), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Dravinja vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.