Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 04/10, 16:00

Prediction: ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs ND Beltinci

Team pages: ND Ilirija Ljubljana · ND Beltinci

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

ND Ilirija Ljubljana1.21

ND Beltinci1.51

1X2

30% 27% 43%

ND Ilirija Ljubljana Draw ND Beltinci

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

ND Ilirija Ljubljana 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLDLWL

ND Beltinci 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLWDWW

Head-to-head

ND Ilirija Ljubljana 2–1–3 ND Beltinci (6 last)

ND Ilirija Ljubljana1-3ND Beltinci
ND Ilirija Ljubljana0-1ND Beltinci
ND Beltinci3-1ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Ilirija Ljubljana2-2ND Beltinci
ND Beltinci1-2ND Ilirija Ljubljana
ND Beltinci1-2ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1478 · ND Beltinci 1551

	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	Draw	ND Beltinci
Our model	29%	28%	43%
Market	30%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ND Beltinci (rating 1478 vs 1551).
H2H favours ND Beltinci: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	ND Beltinci
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 2.9	3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.40

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:48 +3’	3.00	3.40	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ND Ilirija Ljubljana 2–1–3 ND Beltinci

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	1-3 HT 1-3	ND Beltinci
24/01/26 Club Friendly List	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	0-1 HT 0-1	ND Beltinci
15/11/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Beltinci	3-1 HT 3-0	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
10/05/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	2-2 HT 1-1	ND Beltinci
03/11/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Beltinci	1-2 HT 0-1	ND Ilirija Ljubljana
05/05/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Beltinci	1-2 HT 0-1	ND Ilirija Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	8	6	1	1	18	6	19
2	ND Beltinci	8	5	1	2	19	9	16
3	NK Triglav Kranj	8	5	1	2	14	5	16
4	NK Jesenice	8	5	1	2	16	8	16
5	NK Rudar Velenje	8	5	0	3	18	13	15
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	8	4	1	3	13	6	13
7	NK Vrhnika	8	4	1	3	10	12	13
8	ND Slovan Ljubljana	8	4	1	3	9	14	13
9	NK Bilje	8	4	0	4	15	17	12
10	Jadran Dekani	8	3	3	2	6	4	12
11	NK Bistrica	8	3	1	4	9	13	10
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	8	2	2	4	9	14	8
13	NK Krsko	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
14	NK Krka	8	2	1	5	8	14	7
15	ND Dravinja	8	1	1	6	8	20	4
16	NK Brezice	8	0	1	7	7	17	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	ND Beltinci
Jadran Dekani	0-1 L	0-0 D
NK Krsko	2-0 W	3-2 W
NK Jesenice	1-3 L	1-3 L
NK Primorje Ajdovscina	0-0 D	4-0 W
ND Slovan Ljubljana	1-2 L	1-3 L
NK Rudar Velenje	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ND Ilirija Ljubljana

LLWWWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
19/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
12/09	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-3	1	4	L
04/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
28/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
15/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	6-0	2	1	W
09/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
22/05	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	1-3	1-3	4	4	L
15/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	0	3	L

ND Beltinci

LWWLWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
19/09	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	5-1	1	5	W
13/09	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
05/09	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	3-2	9	2	W
29/08	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-3	4	6	L
23/08	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	4-0	5	5	W
15/08	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-3	1-3	7	7	L
07/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
22/05	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	3-1	6	4	W
16/05	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	1-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs ND Beltinci?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ND Beltinci win (43%). Probabilities: ND Ilirija Ljubljana 30%, draw 27%, ND Beltinci 43%.

How many goals are expected in ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs ND Beltinci?

The model expects 2.72 goals (ND Ilirija Ljubljana 1.21 · ND Beltinci 1.51), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ND Ilirija Ljubljana vs ND Beltinci?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.