Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 04/10, 18:00

Prediction: NK Triglav Kranj vs NK Jesenice

Team pages: NK Triglav Kranj · NK Jesenice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

NK Triglav Kranj1.97

NK Jesenice1.23

1X2

54% 23% 23%

NK Triglav Kranj Draw NK Jesenice

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Triglav Kranj 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWLWWD

NK Jesenice 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWLWWW

Head-to-head

NK Triglav Kranj 4–0 NK Jesenice (4 last)

NK Jesenice0-2NK Triglav Kranj
NK Jesenice0-3NK Triglav Kranj
NK Triglav Kranj6-0NK Jesenice
NK Triglav Kranj4-0NK Jesenice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Triglav Kranj 1552 · NK Jesenice 1487

	NK Triglav Kranj	Draw	NK Jesenice
Our model	54%	24%	23%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Triglav Kranj (rating 1552 vs 1487).
H2H favours NK Triglav Kranj: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Triglav Kranj	NK Jesenice
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.90

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:46 +3’	1.67	3.90	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Triglav Kranj 4–0–0 NK Jesenice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/08/26 Slovenia Cup	NK Jesenice	0-2 HT 0-1	NK Triglav Kranj
30/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Jesenice	0-3 HT 0-1	NK Triglav Kranj
17/10/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Triglav Kranj	6-0 HT 1-0	NK Jesenice
11/09/24 Slovenia Cup	NK Triglav Kranj	4-0 HT 1-0	NK Jesenice

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tabor Sezana	8	6	1	1	18	6	19
2	ND Beltinci	8	5	1	2	19	9	16
3	NK Triglav Kranj	8	5	1	2	14	5	16
4	NK Jesenice	8	5	1	2	16	8	16
5	NK Rudar Velenje	8	5	0	3	18	13	15
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	8	4	1	3	13	6	13
7	NK Vrhnika	8	4	1	3	10	12	13
8	ND Slovan Ljubljana	8	4	1	3	9	14	13
9	NK Bilje	8	4	0	4	15	17	12
10	Jadran Dekani	8	3	3	2	6	4	12
11	NK Bistrica	8	3	1	4	9	13	10
12	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	8	2	2	4	9	14	8
13	NK Krsko	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
14	NK Krka	8	2	1	5	8	14	7
15	ND Dravinja	8	1	1	6	8	20	4
16	NK Brezice	8	0	1	7	7	17	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Triglav Kranj	NK Jesenice
ND Dravinja	4-1 W	0-1 L
Tabor Sezana	0-1 L	0-3 L
NK Vrhnika	1-0 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Triglav Kranj (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Triglav Kranj

LDWLWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
20/09	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
16/09	NK Brezice Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
13/09	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
04/09	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
29/08	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	4-1	5	6	W
14/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/08	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/05	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
16/05	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-4	3	7	L

NK Jesenice

LLLDWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	5-0	3	4	W
20/09	NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
12/09	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	3-1	4	4	W
05/09	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
29/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	3-1	4	6	W
21/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
14/08	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
08/08	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
23/05	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
15/05	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	2-1	2-3	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Triglav Kranj vs NK Jesenice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Triglav Kranj win (54%). Probabilities: NK Triglav Kranj 54%, draw 23%, NK Jesenice 23%.

How many goals are expected in NK Triglav Kranj vs NK Jesenice?

The model expects 3.2 goals (NK Triglav Kranj 1.97 · NK Jesenice 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Triglav Kranj vs NK Jesenice?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.