Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 09/10, 03:00

Prediction: Antigua GFC vs CSD Municipal

Team pages: Antigua GFC · CSD Municipal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Antigua GFC1.31

CSD Municipal1.19

1X2

39% 29% 33%

Antigua GFC Draw CSD Municipal

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Antigua GFC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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CSD Municipal 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Antigua GFC 2–1–3 CSD Municipal (6 last)

Antigua GFC1-0CSD Municipal
CSD Municipal4-2Antigua GFC
CSD Municipal1-0Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC2-0CSD Municipal
CSD Municipal2-1Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC1-1CSD Municipal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Antigua GFC 1495 · CSD Municipal 1572

	Antigua GFC	Draw	CSD Municipal
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSD Municipal (rating 1495 vs 1572).
H2H favours CSD Municipal: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Antigua GFC	CSD Municipal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.6 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.5	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:32 +8’	2.30	3.20	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Antigua GFC 2–1–3 CSD Municipal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	1-0 HT 1-0	CSD Municipal
22/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	4-2 HT 2-0	Antigua GFC
28/12/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	1-0 HT 1-0	Antigua GFC
22/12/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	2-0 HT 1-0	CSD Municipal
23/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	2-1 HT 1-1	Antigua GFC
18/09/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	1-1 HT 1-1	CSD Municipal

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guastatoya	12	8	1	3	19	13	25
2	CSD Municipal	10	7	2	1	16	5	23
3	Antigua GFC	11	7	0	4	21	17	21
4	Marquense	12	6	1	5	13	15	19
5	Xelaju	12	5	3	4	24	14	18
6	Deportivo Mixco	11	6	0	5	19	17	18
7	Deportivo San Pedro	12	5	3	4	14	12	18
8	CSD Comunicaciones	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
9	Coban Imperial	12	3	4	5	15	18	13
10	Aurora	12	4	0	8	17	21	12
11	Malacateco	12	3	3	6	12	19	12
12	Suchitepequez	12	1	3	8	11	26	6

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Antigua GFC	CSD Municipal
Marquense	1-2 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Mixco	1-3 L	2-0 W
Xelaju	0-4 L	2-0 W
Suchitepequez	3-2 W	3-0 W
Malacateco	2-0 W	2-2 D
Aurora	2-1 W	2-1 W
Deportivo San Pedro	3-4 L	0-0 D
CSD Comunicaciones	2-0 W	1-0 W
Coban Imperial	2-0 W	2-0 W
Guastatoya	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 4 L	7 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CSD Municipal (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Antigua GFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
27/09	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
24/09	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-4	8	4	L
15/09	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	8	8	W
11/09	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
05/09	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
30/08	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-3	3-4	4	6	L
23/08	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
19/08	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	1	9	W
09/08	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	10	7	W

CSD Municipal

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
14/09	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	2-2	9	2	D
10/09	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
07/09	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	12	5	D
30/08	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/08	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
16/08	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
10/08	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
03/08	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-1	2-1	8	3	W
25/07	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Antigua GFC vs CSD Municipal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Antigua GFC win (39%). Probabilities: Antigua GFC 39%, draw 29%, CSD Municipal 33%.

How many goals are expected in Antigua GFC vs CSD Municipal?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Antigua GFC 1.31 · CSD Municipal 1.19), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Antigua GFC vs CSD Municipal?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.