Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 19/10, 02:00
Prediction: CSD Municipal vs Guastatoya
Team pages: CSD Municipal · Guastatoya
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
CSD Municipal1.77
Guastatoya0.68
1X2
CSD Municipal
Draw
Guastatoya
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
CSD Municipal
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Guastatoya
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CSD Municipal
4–1–1
Guastatoya
(6 last)
- Guastatoya1-0CSD Municipal
- CSD Municipal2-0Guastatoya
- Guastatoya0-1CSD Municipal
- Guastatoya1-1CSD Municipal
- CSD Municipal2-1Guastatoya
- CSD Municipal3-0Guastatoya
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CSD Municipal 1554 · Guastatoya 1501
| CSD Municipal | Draw | Guastatoya | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 25% | 13% |
| Market | 64% | 23% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSD Municipal (rating 1554 vs 1501).
- H2H favours CSD Municipal: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CSD Municipal | Guastatoya | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.8 | 1.7 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CSD Municipal 4–1–1 Guastatoya
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 1-0 HT 0-0 | CSD Municipal |
| 04/05/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Guastatoya |
| 01/05/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CSD Municipal |
| 22/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 1-1 HT 0-0 | CSD Municipal |
| 01/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Guastatoya |
| 27/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | CSD Municipal | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Guastatoya |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 26 |
| 2 | Guastatoya | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 26 |
| 3 | CSD Municipal | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | Deportivo San Pedro | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 22 |
| 5 | Xelaju | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 17 | 21 |
| 6 | Marquense | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 21 |
| 7 | Deportivo Mixco | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 20 |
| 8 | Aurora | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 21 | 23 | 18 |
| 9 | Coban Imperial | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 16 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 15 |
| 11 | CSD Comunicaciones | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 14 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 8 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CSD Municipal | Guastatoya |
|---|---|---|
| Coban Imperial | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Marquense | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Antigua GFC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Suchitepequez | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Malacateco | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Aurora | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo San Pedro | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| CSD Comunicaciones | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Xelaju | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 4 D 1 L | 5 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: CSD Municipal (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CSD Municipal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 12/10 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 09/10 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 25/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 14/09 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 10/09 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/09 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
Guastatoya
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/10 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 05/10 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/09 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/09 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 14/09 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 23/08 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CSD Municipal vs Guastatoya?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CSD Municipal win (63%). Probabilities: CSD Municipal 63%, draw 24%, Guastatoya 13%.
How many goals are expected in CSD Municipal vs Guastatoya?
The model expects 2.45 goals (CSD Municipal 1.77 · Guastatoya 0.68), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CSD Municipal vs Guastatoya?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.