Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 15/10, 20:00
Prediction: Xelaju vs Malacateco
Team pages: Xelaju · Malacateco
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Xelaju1.97
Malacateco0.72
1X2
Xelaju
Draw
Malacateco
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Xelaju
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Malacateco
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Xelaju
4–1–1
Malacateco
(6 last)
- Malacateco2-2Xelaju
- Xelaju1-0Malacateco
- Malacateco1-0Xelaju
- Xelaju3-0Malacateco
- Malacateco0-1Xelaju
- Xelaju2-1Malacateco
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Xelaju 1510 · Malacateco 1490
| Xelaju | Draw | Malacateco | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 66% | 22% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Xelaju: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Xelaju | Malacateco | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.3 | 2.2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 1 | 4.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Xelaju 4–1–1 Malacateco
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Xelaju |
| 06/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Malacateco |
| 19/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Xelaju |
| 29/09/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Malacateco |
| 20/07/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Xelaju |
| 16/03/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Xelaju | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Malacateco |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSD Municipal | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Antigua GFC | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 19 | 25 |
| 3 | Guastatoya | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 25 |
| 4 | Deportivo San Pedro | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 21 |
| 5 | Marquense | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 20 |
| 6 | Deportivo Mixco | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 19 |
| 7 | Xelaju | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 16 | 18 |
| 8 | Aurora | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 22 | 15 |
| 9 | Malacateco | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 15 |
| 10 | CSD Comunicaciones | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 21 | 14 |
| 11 | Coban Imperial | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 13 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 7 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Xelaju | Malacateco |
|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo San Pedro | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| CSD Comunicaciones | 2-3 L | 2-4 L |
| Antigua GFC | 4-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Suchitepequez | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Guastatoya | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Coban Imperial | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Marquense | 4-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Mixco | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| CSD Municipal | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 4 L | 4 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Xelaju (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Xelaju
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/10 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 27/09 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 24/09 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 14/09 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/09 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Malacateco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/10 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 21/09 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/09 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/09 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 31/08 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/08 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Xelaju vs Malacateco?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Xelaju win (66%). Probabilities: Xelaju 66%, draw 22%, Malacateco 12%.
How many goals are expected in Xelaju vs Malacateco?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Xelaju 1.97 · Malacateco 0.72), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Xelaju vs Malacateco?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.