Football · Bulgaria Second League · 26/09, 17:00

Prediction: FK Fratria vs Spartak Pleven

Team pages: FK Fratria · Spartak Pleven

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

FK Fratria2.12

Spartak Pleven0.68

1X2

70% 20% 10%

FK Fratria Draw Spartak Pleven

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Fratria 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWDDDW

Spartak Pleven 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLLLWL

Head-to-head

FK Fratria 1–2–1 Spartak Pleven (4 last)

Spartak Pleven1-1FK Fratria
FK Fratria1-0Spartak Pleven
FK Fratria0-2Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven0-0FK Fratria

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Fratria 1555 · Spartak Pleven 1441

	FK Fratria	Draw	Spartak Pleven
Our model	70%	20%	10%
Market	71%	19%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Fratria (rating 1555 vs 1441).
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Fratria	Spartak Pleven
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.27

X4.75

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +2’	1.27	4.75	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Fratria 1–2–1 Spartak Pleven

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/26 Bulgaria Second League	Spartak Pleven	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Fratria
20/10/25 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	1-0 HT 1-0	Spartak Pleven
01/03/25 Bulgaria Second League	FK Fratria	0-2 HT 0-0	Spartak Pleven
18/08/24 Bulgaria Second League	Spartak Pleven	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Fratria

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	9	6	3	0	21	8	21
2	FK Fratria	10	5	4	1	14	8	19
3	Chernomorets Burgas	10	5	3	2	16	8	18
4	CSKA Sofia II	9	5	2	2	19	8	17
5	Nesebar	10	5	2	3	20	15	17
6	Yantra Gabrovo	10	5	1	4	12	10	16
7	Beroe	10	4	3	3	15	12	15
8	Rilski Sportist	10	4	3	3	13	10	15
9	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	10	4	3	3	9	10	15
10	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
11	Marek Dupnitsa	10	4	1	5	11	12	13
12	Ludogorets Razgrad II	9	3	3	3	9	9	12
13	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	9	3	2	4	18	17	11
14	Montana	9	3	2	4	13	16	11
15	Spartak Pleven	9	3	1	5	10	19	10
16	Sportist Svoge	9	1	4	4	4	7	7
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	9	1	3	5	9	14	6
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	10	0	0	10	4	32	0

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Fratria	Spartak Pleven
Ludogorets Razgrad II	1-1 D	1-3 L
Chernomorets Burgas	2-2 D	0-3 L
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	1-1 D	3-2 W
CSKA Sofia II	1-0 W	1-5 L
Vihren Sandanski	2-2 D	0-2 L
Beroe	2-0 W	0-3 L
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	2-0 W	0-1 L
Rilski Sportist	1-0 W	2-2 D
Marek Dupnitsa	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FK Fratria (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Fratria

LWWWDWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
15/09	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
07/09	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
01/09	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
29/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
24/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
14/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
09/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
01/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	0	W
25/07	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Spartak Pleven

LWWDLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
07/09	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-2	5	10	W
03/09	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	1-2	1-5	7	3	L
30/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
25/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
16/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
09/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
01/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
23/05	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Fratria vs Spartak Pleven?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Fratria win (70%). Probabilities: FK Fratria 70%, draw 20%, Spartak Pleven 10%.

How many goals are expected in FK Fratria vs Spartak Pleven?

The model expects 2.81 goals (FK Fratria 2.12 · Spartak Pleven 0.68), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Fratria vs Spartak Pleven?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.