Football · Bulgaria Second League · 26/09, 17:00

Prediction: CSKA Sofia II vs Sportist Svoge

Team pages: CSKA Sofia II · Sportist Svoge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

CSKA Sofia II1.94

Sportist Svoge0.74

1X2

65% 22% 13%

CSKA Sofia II Draw Sportist Svoge

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CSKA Sofia II 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDLWLW

Sportist Svoge 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLDLDL

Head-to-head

CSKA Sofia II 2–1–1 Sportist Svoge (4 last)

Sportist Svoge0-1CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II6-0Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge0-0CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II1-2Sportist Svoge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CSKA Sofia II 1574 · Sportist Svoge 1464

	CSKA Sofia II	Draw	Sportist Svoge
Our model	65%	23%	12%
Market	65%	22%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA Sofia II (rating 1574 vs 1464).
H2H favours CSKA Sofia II: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CSKA Sofia II	Sportist Svoge
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	2.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.10

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:03 +7’	1.38	4.10	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CSKA Sofia II 2–1–1 Sportist Svoge

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Bulgaria Second League	Sportist Svoge	0-1 HT 0-1	CSKA Sofia II
03/10/25 Bulgaria Second League	CSKA Sofia II	6-0 HT 3-0	Sportist Svoge
17/02/25 Bulgaria Second League	Sportist Svoge	0-0 HT 0-0	CSKA Sofia II
04/08/24 Bulgaria Second League	CSKA Sofia II	1-2 HT 0-2	Sportist Svoge

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	9	6	3	0	21	8	21
2	FK Fratria	10	5	4	1	14	8	19
3	Chernomorets Burgas	10	5	3	2	16	8	18
4	CSKA Sofia II	9	5	2	2	19	8	17
5	Nesebar	10	5	2	3	20	15	17
6	Yantra Gabrovo	10	5	1	4	12	10	16
7	Beroe	10	4	3	3	15	12	15
8	Rilski Sportist	10	4	3	3	13	10	15
9	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	10	4	3	3	9	10	15
10	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
11	Marek Dupnitsa	10	4	1	5	11	12	13
12	Ludogorets Razgrad II	9	3	3	3	9	9	12
13	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	9	3	2	4	18	17	11
14	Montana	9	3	2	4	13	16	11
15	Spartak Pleven	9	3	1	5	10	19	10
16	Sportist Svoge	9	1	4	4	4	7	7
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	9	1	3	5	9	14	6
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	10	0	0	10	4	32	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CSKA Sofia II	Sportist Svoge
Montana	4-0 W	2-2 D
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	4-3 W	1-0 W
Pirin Blagoevgrad	3-0 W	1-0 W
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CSKA Sofia II (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CSKA Sofia II

WDWWWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-0	4-0	3	7	W
06/09	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
03/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	2-1	5-1	3	3	W
29/08	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
25/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	11	8	D
17/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-2	4-3	4	5	W
03/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
28/07	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
23/05	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	–	–	W

Sportist Svoge

WDDWLLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
07/09	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
02/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
29/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
23/08	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
16/08	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
09/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
02/08	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
25/07	Montana Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
23/05	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CSKA Sofia II vs Sportist Svoge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CSKA Sofia II win (65%). Probabilities: CSKA Sofia II 65%, draw 22%, Sportist Svoge 13%.

How many goals are expected in CSKA Sofia II vs Sportist Svoge?

The model expects 2.68 goals (CSKA Sofia II 1.94 · Sportist Svoge 0.74), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia II vs Sportist Svoge?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.