Football · Bulgaria Second League · 26/09, 17:00

Prediction: Beroe vs Yantra Gabrovo

Team pages: Beroe · Yantra Gabrovo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Beroe1.31

Yantra Gabrovo1.05

1X2

42% 30% 29%

Beroe Draw Yantra Gabrovo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Beroe 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDDDWL

Yantra Gabrovo 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDWWLL

Head-to-head

Beroe 2–2–0 Yantra Gabrovo (4 last)

Beroe0-0Yantra Gabrovo
Beroe1-0Yantra Gabrovo
Beroe1-1Yantra Gabrovo
Beroe3-0Yantra Gabrovo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Beroe 1510 · Yantra Gabrovo 1508

	Beroe	Draw	Yantra Gabrovo
Our model	41%	30%	28%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Beroe: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Beroe	Yantra Gabrovo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	2.6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
18:06 +8’	2.15	3.10	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Beroe 2–2–0 Yantra Gabrovo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/02/23 Club Friendly List	Beroe	0-0 HT 0-0	Yantra Gabrovo
28/06/22 Club Friendly List	Beroe	1-0 HT 0-0	Yantra Gabrovo
25/06/21 Club Friendly List	Beroe	1-1 HT 1-0	Yantra Gabrovo
16/01/21 Europe Friendlies	Beroe	3-0 HT 0-0	Yantra Gabrovo

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	9	6	3	0	21	8	21
2	FK Fratria	10	5	4	1	14	8	19
3	Chernomorets Burgas	10	5	3	2	16	8	18
4	CSKA Sofia II	9	5	2	2	19	8	17
5	Nesebar	10	5	2	3	20	15	17
6	Yantra Gabrovo	10	5	1	4	12	10	16
7	Beroe	10	4	3	3	15	12	15
8	Rilski Sportist	10	4	3	3	13	10	15
9	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	10	4	3	3	9	10	15
10	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
11	Marek Dupnitsa	10	4	1	5	11	12	13
12	Ludogorets Razgrad II	9	3	3	3	9	9	12
13	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	9	3	2	4	18	17	11
14	Montana	9	3	2	4	13	16	11
15	Spartak Pleven	9	3	1	5	10	19	10
16	Sportist Svoge	9	1	4	4	4	7	7
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	9	1	3	5	9	14	6
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	10	0	0	10	4	32	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Beroe	Yantra Gabrovo
Nesebar	3-4 L	1-1 D
Sportist Svoge	1-0 W	1-0 W
PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	2-2 D	1-0 W
Montana	0-0 D	3-2 W
Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	2-2 D	1-2 L
Spartak Pleven	3-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Yantra Gabrovo (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Beroe

WLWLWDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-2	3-4	5	6	L
13/09	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
06/09	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-2	3	7	D
03/09	Montana Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
25/08	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
14/08	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
10/08	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
01/08	Chernomorets Burgas Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
24/07	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W

Yantra Gabrovo

LLWWWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
13/09	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
06/09	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	4	8	W
02/09	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
23/08	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
16/08	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
11/08	Montana Bulgaria Second League	2-2	3-2	6	5	W
03/08	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
25/07	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-2	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Beroe vs Yantra Gabrovo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Beroe win (42%). Probabilities: Beroe 42%, draw 30%, Yantra Gabrovo 29%.

How many goals are expected in Beroe vs Yantra Gabrovo?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Beroe 1.31 · Yantra Gabrovo 1.05), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Beroe vs Yantra Gabrovo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.