Football · Bulgaria Second League · 26/09, 17:00

Prediction: Chernomorets Burgas vs Montana

Team pages: Chernomorets Burgas · Montana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Chernomorets Burgas1.89

Montana1.14

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Chernomorets Burgas Draw Montana

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chernomorets Burgas 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLLWWDWW

Montana 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWDLLL

Head-to-head

Chernomorets Burgas 0–1–3 Montana (4 last)

Montana2-2Chernomorets Burgas
Chernomorets Burgas0-1Montana
Montana2-0Chernomorets Burgas
Chernomorets Burgas1-2Montana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chernomorets Burgas 1547 · Montana 1463

	Chernomorets Burgas	Draw	Montana
Our model	54%	25%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chernomorets Burgas (rating 1547 vs 1463).
H2H favours Montana: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chernomorets Burgas	Montana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	1.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.3	1.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	5.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.75

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:09 +5’	1.67	3.75	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chernomorets Burgas 0–1–3 Montana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/24 Bulgaria Second League	Montana	2-2 HT 2-0	Chernomorets Burgas
23/09/23 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	0-1 HT 0-1	Montana
28/02/15 Bulgaria Second League	Montana	2-0 HT 1-0	Chernomorets Burgas
02/08/14 Bulgaria Second League	Chernomorets Burgas	1-2 HT 0-1	Montana

Standings · Bulgaria Second League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vihren Sandanski	10	6	3	1	23	11	21
2	CSKA Sofia II	10	6	2	2	22	9	20
3	FK Fratria	10	5	4	1	14	8	19
4	Chernomorets Burgas	10	5	3	2	16	8	18
5	Nesebar	10	5	2	3	20	15	17
6	Yantra Gabrovo	10	5	1	4	12	10	16
7	Beroe	10	4	3	3	15	12	15
8	Rilski Sportist	10	4	3	3	13	10	15
9	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	10	4	3	3	9	10	15
10	FC Hebar Pazardzhik	10	4	2	4	23	17	14
11	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo	10	4	2	4	17	19	14
12	Spartak Pleven	10	4	1	5	11	19	13
13	Marek Dupnitsa	10	4	1	5	11	12	13
14	Ludogorets Razgrad II	10	3	3	4	9	10	12
15	Montana	10	3	2	5	13	21	11
16	Sportist Svoge	10	2	4	4	7	9	10
17	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich	10	1	3	6	10	17	6
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	10	0	0	10	4	32	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chernomorets Burgas	Montana
FC Hebar Pazardzhik	0-1 L	0-5 L
CSKA Sofia II	0-1 L	0-4 L
Vihren Sandanski	1-1 D	1-4 L
Beroe	1-0 W	0-0 D
Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Chernomorets Burgas (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chernomorets Burgas

DWDLLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League	2-0	4-2	0	4	W
13/09	Spartak Pleven Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
07/09	FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
02/09	Ludogorets Razgrad II Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Pirin Blagoevgrad Bulgaria Second League	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
23/08	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
17/08	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
09/08	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/08	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
25/07	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D

Montana

DWLWLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	FC Hebar Pazardzhik Bulgaria Second League	0-3	0-5	7	4	L
13/09	CSKA Sofia II Bulgaria Second League	0-1	0-4	7	7	L
08/09	Vihren Sandanski Bulgaria Second League	0-1	1-4	6	5	L
03/09	Beroe Bulgaria Second League	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
30/08	Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Bulgaria Second League	1-0	3-0	2	5	W
22/08	Rilski Sportist Bulgaria Second League	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
16/08	Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
11/08	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
04/08	Nesebar Bulgaria Second League	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
25/07	Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League	1-1	2-2	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chernomorets Burgas vs Montana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chernomorets Burgas win (54%). Probabilities: Chernomorets Burgas 54%, draw 24%, Montana 22%.

How many goals are expected in Chernomorets Burgas vs Montana?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Chernomorets Burgas 1.89 · Montana 1.14), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chernomorets Burgas vs Montana?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.