Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 12/10, 02:00
Prediction: The Town vs Tacoma Defiance
Team pages: The Town · Tacoma Defiance
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
The Town1.76
Tacoma Defiance1.26
1X2
The Town
Draw
Tacoma Defiance
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
The Town
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Tacoma Defiance
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
The Town
0–2–4
Tacoma Defiance
(6 last)
- The Town1-2Tacoma Defiance
- The Town0-1Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance0-0The Town
- The Town0-1Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance4-4The Town
- Tacoma Defiance3-1The Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · The Town 1482 · Tacoma Defiance 1518
| The Town | Draw | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 26% | 27% |
| Market | 49% | 24% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Tacoma Defiance: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| The Town | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 2.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.5 | 1.8 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · The Town 0–2–4 Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 13/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 15/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 0-0 HT 0-0 | The Town |
| 29/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 04/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 4-4 HT 2-1 | The Town |
| 15/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 3-1 HT 2-0 | The Town |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 54 | 21 | 65 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 37 | 29 | 57 |
| 3 | Ventura County FC | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 58 | 36 | 53 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo II | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 53 | 33 | 52 |
| 5 | Minnesota United FC II | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 43 | 39 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 50 | 48 | 45 |
| 7 | St Louis City II | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 42 | 40 | 44 |
| 8 | The Town | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 51 | 36 | 42 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 44 | 41 |
| 10 | North Texas SC | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 42 | 41 | 40 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 38 | 55 | 33 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 39 | 62 | 27 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 36 | 75 | 23 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 28 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 28 | 52 | 21 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | The Town | Tacoma Defiance |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 2-0 W | 4-2 W |
| Real Monarchs SLC | 4-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Ventura County FC | 1-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Los Angeles FC II | 3-2 W | 3-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: The Town (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
The Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 14/09 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 10/09 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 31/08 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/08 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 03/08 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 14/09 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/08 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 20/07 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
According to our model, the most likely result is a The Town win (48%). Probabilities: The Town 48%, draw 24%, Tacoma Defiance 27%.
How many goals are expected in The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model expects 3.02 goals (The Town 1.76 · Tacoma Defiance 1.26), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.