Football · USA MLS · 10/10, 19:00

Prediction: Toronto FC vs CF Montreal

Team pages: Toronto FC · CF Montreal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Toronto FC1.75

CF Montreal1.39

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Toronto FC Draw CF Montreal

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Toronto FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWDDWLLL

CF Montreal 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DDWDLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Toronto FC 3–3–0 CF Montreal (6 last)

CF Montreal0-0Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-1CF Montreal
CF Montreal1-6Toronto FC
Toronto FC2-2CF Montreal
CF Montreal0-1Toronto FC
Toronto FC5-1CF Montreal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toronto FC 1488 · CF Montreal 1466

	Toronto FC	Draw	CF Montreal
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Toronto FC: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toronto FC	CF Montreal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	1.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 2.05▲	Bet365 2.05
X	3.80 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.87
2	3.40 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.59 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:08 +3’	1.90	3.80	3.40
07:43 +3’	2.05▲	3.70▼	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:21 +410’	1.94	3.87	3.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC 3–3–0 CF Montreal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 USA MLS	CF Montreal	0-0 HT 0-0	Toronto FC
31/08/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-1 HT 0-0	CF Montreal
17/05/25 USA MLS	CF Montreal	1-6 HT 0-3	Toronto FC
01/05/25 Canada Championships	Toronto FC	2-2 HT 1-0	CF Montreal
21/07/24 USA MLS	CF Montreal	0-1 HT 0-1	Toronto FC
19/05/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	5-1 HT 3-0	CF Montreal

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	18	6	3	55	21	60
2	New England Revolution	27	14	4	9	45	36	46
3	Inter Miami CF	27	12	10	5	64	50	46
4	Charlotte FC	27	12	7	8	47	38	43
5	Chicago Fire	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Philadelphia Union	27	11	6	10	54	44	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	10	4	13	48	64	34
8	New York Red Bulls	27	9	6	12	34	51	33
9	New York City FC	27	8	9	10	41	36	33
10	FC Cincinnati	26	8	9	9	55	64	33
11	DC United	26	6	12	8	34	42	30
12	Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	39	43	29
13	Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	39	51	29
14	Atlanta United	27	7	6	14	32	45	27
15	CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	34	54	24

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toronto FC	CF Montreal
Inter Miami CF	2-1 W	1-7 L
Charlotte FC	3-3 D	1-2 L
New England Revolution	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Toronto FC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toronto FC

DWDWDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	1	L
20/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
13/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
10/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
06/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	4	D
30/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	3	W
01/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	6	D

CF Montreal

DDWDLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
20/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
13/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
10/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
06/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-0	0-2	1	8	L
30/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	1-7	6	3	L
23/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
20/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
16/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	2-2	6	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toronto FC win (45%). Probabilities: Toronto FC 45%, draw 25%, CF Montreal 30%.

How many goals are expected in Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Toronto FC 1.75 · CF Montreal 1.39), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.