Football · USA MLS · 18/10, 04:30

Prediction: LA Galaxy vs San Diego FC

Team pages: LA Galaxy · San Diego FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

LA Galaxy1.91

San Diego FC1.37

1X2

49% 24% 27%

LA Galaxy Draw San Diego FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

LA Galaxy 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWLDWW

San Diego FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLDDL

Head-to-head

LA Galaxy 0–3 San Diego FC (3 last)

San Diego FC3-1LA Galaxy
San Diego FC2-1LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy0-2San Diego FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LA Galaxy 1523 · San Diego FC 1461

	LA Galaxy	Draw	San Diego FC
Our model	49%	24%	27%
Market	49%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LA Galaxy (rating 1523 vs 1461).
H2H favours San Diego FC: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LA Galaxy	San Diego FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.80

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16 +5’	1.91	3.80	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · LA Galaxy 0–0–3 San Diego FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 USA MLS	San Diego FC	3-1 HT 1-0	LA Galaxy
24/05/25 USA MLS	San Diego FC	2-1 HT 1-1	LA Galaxy
24/02/25 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	0-2 HT 0-0	San Diego FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	61	30	51
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	52	45	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	50	40	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	36	34	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	44	31	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	38	35	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	39	39	37
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	51	54	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	41	46	32
12	San Diego FC	28	8	8	12	48	51	32
13	Austin FC	28	7	10	11	36	51	31
14	Minnesota United	28	7	9	12	42	51	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	35	68	22

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LA Galaxy	San Diego FC
Colorado Rapids	3-2 W	3-0 W
San Jose Earthquakes	1-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LA Galaxy

DLWDLWLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-2	3-2	5	4	W
20/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-2	3-2	9	2	W
13/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
10/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
06/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
30/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-1	1-3	7	7	L
23/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
20/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
16/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
02/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

San Diego FC

WLWWLLLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-3	1-4	7	5	L
27/09	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	3-3	1	1	D
21/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
14/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-5	11	4	L
10/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	2-3	1	10	L
06/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
30/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
23/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
20/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-3	7	3	L
16/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LA Galaxy vs San Diego FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LA Galaxy win (49%). Probabilities: LA Galaxy 49%, draw 24%, San Diego FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in LA Galaxy vs San Diego FC?

The model expects 3.28 goals (LA Galaxy 1.91 · San Diego FC 1.37), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LA Galaxy vs San Diego FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.