Football · USA MLS · 18/10, 23:00

Prediction: FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew

Team pages: FC Cincinnati · Columbus Crew

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

FC Cincinnati1.75

Columbus Crew1.62

1X2

41% 24% 35%

FC Cincinnati Draw Columbus Crew

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cincinnati 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDDLWL

Columbus Crew 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLWWLW

Head-to-head

FC Cincinnati 2–1–3 Columbus Crew (6 last)

Columbus Crew2-1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati2-1Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew4-0FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati1-0Columbus Crew
FC Cincinnati2-4Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew1-1FC Cincinnati

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cincinnati 1459 · Columbus Crew 1498

	FC Cincinnati	Draw	Columbus Crew
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	41%	24%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Columbus Crew: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cincinnati	Columbus Crew
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.4	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.2	2.6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X4.00

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 12 moves · last 22:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.35▲	Bet365 2.35
X	3.90 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.02
2	3.40 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.82 ★

See the full journey (12)

Bet365 margin 4.6% Pinnacle margin 3.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +2’	1.91	3.90	3.40
06:23 +2’	2.15▲	3.80▼	3.10▼
14:26 +9’	2.20▲	3.90▲	2.90▼
22:38 +4’	2.15▼	4.00▲	3.00▲
01:20 +5’	2.15	4.00	2.90▼
02:23 +10’	2.20▲	4.00	2.88▼
09:19 +6’	2.25▲	4.00	2.80▼
17:24 +28’	2.40▲	3.90▼	2.63▼
07:06 +6’	2.38▼	4.00▲	2.63
11:18 +8’	2.30▼	4.00	2.75▲
19:43 +1’	2.25▼	4.00	2.80▲
21:55 +6’	2.35▲	4.00	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:41 +48’	2.06	4.03	3.06
02:44 +47’	2.07▲	4.08▲	3.09▲
04:05 +20’	2.12▲	4.07▼	3.00▼
04:51 +38’	2.11▼	3.99▼	3.06▲
11:59 +35’	2.19▲	3.98▼	2.93▼
14:23 +11’	2.19	4.02▲	2.90▼
00:28 +57’	2.21▲	4.01▼	2.86▼
06:48 +33’	2.24▲	4.01	2.81▼
17:13 +39’	2.39▲	3.98▼	2.63▼
19:37 +127’	2.35▼	3.97▼	2.68▲
04:19 +17’	2.34▼	3.97	2.69▲
23:12 +2’	2.37▲	4.02▲	2.72▲
06:13 +4’	2.37	4.04▲	2.70▼
06:57 +15’	2.40▲	3.95▼	2.71▲
11:01 +24’	2.42▲	3.97▲	2.72▲
12:21 +9’	2.39▼	3.98▲	2.74▲
13:59 +5’	2.38▼	3.98	2.76▲
15:21 +44’	2.35▼	4.00▲	2.79▲
16:45 +60’	2.34▼	4.00	2.81▲
18:24 +33’	2.34	4.00	2.80▼
19:43 +1’	2.31▼	4.03▲	2.83▲
20:06 +8’	2.33▲	4.02▼	2.81▼
20:45 +18’	2.34▲	4.02	2.79▼
21:33 +28’	2.33▼	4.02	2.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cincinnati 2–1–3 Columbus Crew

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	2-1 HT 2-1	FC Cincinnati
09/11/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	2-1 HT 0-0	Columbus Crew
03/11/25 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	4-0 HT 2-0	FC Cincinnati
27/10/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	1-0 HT 0-0	Columbus Crew
13/07/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	2-4 HT 2-2	Columbus Crew
18/05/25 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Cincinnati

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	30	20	7	3	64	23	67
2	Inter Miami CF	30	15	10	5	73	51	55
3	New England Revolution	30	16	4	10	49	41	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	14	6	10	52	44	48
5	Charlotte FC	30	13	8	9	53	45	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	13	7	10	61	48	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	12	5	13	58	70	41
8	New York Red Bulls	30	10	6	14	39	56	36
9	FC Cincinnati	28	9	9	10	60	68	36
10	Toronto FC	30	8	12	10	46	55	36
11	New York City FC	30	8	10	12	43	41	34
12	DC United	29	7	12	10	37	51	33
13	Columbus Crew	29	9	5	15	44	47	32
14	Atlanta United	30	8	6	16	37	51	30
15	CF Montreal	30	6	7	17	36	60	25

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cincinnati	Columbus Crew
New England Revolution	2-3 L	1-3 L
CF Montreal	1-3 L	2-0 W
Charlotte FC	3-3 D	3-1 W
Nashville SC	0-4 L	2-3 L
Orlando City SC	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Columbus Crew (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cincinnati

DWDLLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-2	2-3	12	4	L
11/10	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
27/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
20/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	2-2	7	0	D
13/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	12	3	D
10/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	0-5	1	3	L
30/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
23/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
20/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
16/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	3	D

Columbus Crew

LLLWLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	3-1	10	2	W
11/10	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-2	2-3	11	5	L
28/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-1	9	11	W
20/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-0	1	3	W
13/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
10/09	DC United USA MLS	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
06/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
30/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-2	1-3	5	2	L
23/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	2-3	1	2	L
20/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cincinnati win (41%). Probabilities: FC Cincinnati 41%, draw 24%, Columbus Crew 35%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew?

The model expects 3.36 goals (FC Cincinnati 1.75 · Columbus Crew 1.62), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.