Football · USA MLS · 18/10, 04:30

Prediction: Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal

Team pages: Seattle Sounders · CF Montreal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Seattle Sounders2.17

CF Montreal1.05

1X2

62% 21% 17%

Seattle Sounders Draw CF Montreal

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Seattle Sounders 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LDDDDDWWWW

CF Montreal 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DWDLLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Seattle Sounders 2–1–3 CF Montreal (6 last)

Seattle Sounders5-0CF Montreal
Seattle Sounders1-2CF Montreal
CF Montreal2-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders0-1CF Montreal
CF Montreal2-2Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders1-0CF Montreal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Seattle Sounders 1543 · CF Montreal 1454

	Seattle Sounders	Draw	CF Montreal
Our model	62%	22%	17%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Seattle Sounders (rating 1543 vs 1454).
H2H favours CF Montreal: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Seattle Sounders	CF Montreal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	1.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +15’	1.50	4.50	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Seattle Sounders 2–1–3 CF Montreal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/24 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	5-0 HT 2-0	CF Montreal
30/06/22 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-2 HT 1-1	CF Montreal
06/06/19 USA MLS	CF Montreal	2-1 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders
01/04/18 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	0-1 HT 0-0	CF Montreal
12/03/17 USA MLS	CF Montreal	2-2 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
03/04/16 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-0 HT 0-0	CF Montreal

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	61	30	51
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	52	45	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	50	40	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	36	34	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	44	31	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	38	35	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	39	39	37
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	51	54	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	41	46	32
12	San Diego FC	28	8	8	12	48	51	32
13	Austin FC	28	7	10	11	36	51	31
14	Minnesota United	28	7	9	12	42	51	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	35	68	22

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Seattle Sounders	CF Montreal
Colorado Rapids	3-3 D	0-1 L
LA Galaxy	1-1 D	2-2 D
FC Cincinnati	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Seattle Sounders

LDDDDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
02/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
27/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
24/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
20/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	3-3	6	1	D
13/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
06/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
29/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
23/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
20/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	7	1	L

CF Montreal

DWDLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
27/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
20/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
13/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
10/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
06/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-0	0-2	1	8	L
30/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	1-7	6	3	L
23/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
20/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
16/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Seattle Sounders win (62%). Probabilities: Seattle Sounders 62%, draw 21%, CF Montreal 17%.

How many goals are expected in Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Seattle Sounders 2.17 · CF Montreal 1.05), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.