Football · USA MLS · 18/10, 02:30

Prediction: Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake

Team pages: Sporting Kansas City · Real Salt Lake

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Sporting Kansas City1.66

Real Salt Lake1.84

1X2

34% 24% 42%

Sporting Kansas City Draw Real Salt Lake

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Kansas City 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Real Salt Lake 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sporting Kansas City 1–1–4 Real Salt Lake (6 last)

Real Salt Lake3-1Sporting Kansas City
Real Salt Lake2-1Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City1-1Real Salt Lake
Sporting Kansas City3-4Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake1-0Sporting Kansas City
Real Salt Lake2-3Sporting Kansas City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Kansas City 1456 · Real Salt Lake 1424

	Sporting Kansas City	Draw	Real Salt Lake
Our model	34%	24%	42%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Salt Lake: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Kansas City	Real Salt Lake
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.2	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	5.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.80

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +5’	2.75	3.80	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Kansas City 1–1–4 Real Salt Lake

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	3-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Kansas City
14/09/25 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Kansas City
29/06/25 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Salt Lake
20/06/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	3-4 HT 1-2	Real Salt Lake
05/05/24 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	1-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City
08/10/23 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-3 HT 0-2	Sporting Kansas City

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	61	30	51
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	52	45	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	50	40	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	36	34	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	44	31	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	38	35	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	39	39	37
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	51	54	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	41	46	32
12	San Diego FC	28	8	8	12	48	51	32
13	Austin FC	28	7	10	11	36	51	31
14	Minnesota United	28	7	9	12	42	51	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	35	68	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Kansas City	Real Salt Lake
Seattle Sounders	1-2 L	0-2 L
Houston Dynamo	2-0 W	1-2 L
Philadelphia Union	3-4 L	1-2 L
Los Angeles FC	3-1 W	2-2 D
FC Dallas	3-4 L	3-4 L
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-3 L	0-3 L
Colorado Rapids	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Kansas City (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Kansas City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-2	3-3	6	1	D
02/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
27/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
20/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	3-0	3-4	3	7	L
13/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
06/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-3	3-4	7	1	L
30/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
24/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
20/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
16/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	6	L

Real Salt Lake

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
27/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
24/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
20/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
13/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
10/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
06/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
30/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
23/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-3	3-4	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Salt Lake win (42%). Probabilities: Sporting Kansas City 34%, draw 24%, Real Salt Lake 42%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Sporting Kansas City 1.66 · Real Salt Lake 1.84), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.