Football · USA MLS · 18/10, 04:30

Prediction: San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC

Team pages: San Jose Earthquakes · Nashville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

San Jose Earthquakes1.42

Nashville SC1.86

1X2

28% 25% 47%

San Jose Earthquakes Draw Nashville SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

San Jose Earthquakes 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLLDDWWDWD

Nashville SC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLDWWW

Head-to-head

San Jose Earthquakes 0–4–0 Nashville SC (4 last)

Nashville SC1-1San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes1-1Nashville SC
Nashville SC0-0San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes2-2Nashville SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Jose Earthquakes 1492 · Nashville SC 1592

	San Jose Earthquakes	Draw	Nashville SC
Our model	29%	25%	47%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nashville SC (rating 1492 vs 1592).
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Jose Earthquakes	Nashville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	2.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	3.7 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.70

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +6’	3.30	3.70	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · San Jose Earthquakes 0–4–0 Nashville SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/24 USA MLS	Nashville SC	1-1 HT 1-0	San Jose Earthquakes
24/09/23 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	1-1 HT 0-0	Nashville SC
12/06/22 USA MLS	Nashville SC	0-0 HT 0-0	San Jose Earthquakes
16/04/22 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	2-2 HT 0-1	Nashville SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	61	30	51
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	52	45	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	50	40	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	36	34	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	44	31	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	38	35	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	39	39	37
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	51	54	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	41	46	32
12	San Diego FC	28	8	8	12	48	51	32
13	Austin FC	28	7	10	11	36	51	31
14	Minnesota United	28	7	9	12	42	51	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	35	68	22

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Jose Earthquakes

LLLDDWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
27/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	3-0	3-1	5	3	W
20/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	2-2	18	4	D
13/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	3-1	3-2	3	10	W
06/09	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
30/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
23/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-3	1-5	3	1	L
20/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	4	3	L

Nashville SC

WWWWDLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
27/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-0	2-0	9	1	W
20/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
13/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
10/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	8	1	L
05/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	4-0	6	5	W
23/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	3-2	8	2	W
20/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	4-1	10	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nashville SC win (47%). Probabilities: San Jose Earthquakes 28%, draw 25%, Nashville SC 47%.

How many goals are expected in San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?

The model expects 3.29 goals (San Jose Earthquakes 1.42 · Nashville SC 1.86), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.