Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 02/10, 23:30

Prediction: Carapegua vs Deportivo Capiata

Team pages: Carapegua · Deportivo Capiata

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Carapegua1.51

Deportivo Capiata1.3

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Carapegua Draw Deportivo Capiata

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Carapegua 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Deportivo Capiata 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Carapegua 0–2–1 Deportivo Capiata (3 last)

Deportivo Capiata5-2Carapegua
Carapegua2-2Deportivo Capiata
Deportivo Capiata1-1Carapegua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carapegua 1527 · Deportivo Capiata 1439

	Carapegua	Draw	Deportivo Capiata
Our model	41%	27%	31%
Market	42%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carapegua (rating 1527 vs 1439).
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carapegua	Deportivo Capiata
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.5	1.5 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:22 +5’	2.15	3.40	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carapegua 0–2–1 Deportivo Capiata

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Deportivo Capiata	5-2 HT 2-1	Carapegua
04/10/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	2-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Capiata
30/06/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Deportivo Capiata	1-1 HT 1-0	Carapegua

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Santaní	26	16	3	7	45	25	51
2	General Caballero JLM	26	15	5	6	52	33	50
3	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	26	14	7	5	35	26	49
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	26	12	6	8	40	32	42
5	Sol de America	26	9	13	4	32	24	40
6	Carapegua	26	11	5	10	31	38	38
7	Independiente FBC	26	9	10	7	37	33	37
8	Paraguari AC	26	10	5	11	35	35	35
9	Fernando de la Mora	26	9	7	10	30	35	34
10	Club Atlético Tembetary	26	9	6	11	36	40	33
11	Resistencia FC	26	8	8	10	28	32	32
12	Deportivo Capiata	26	6	10	10	30	36	28
13	3 de Noviembre	26	6	8	12	33	39	26
14	Guairena FC	26	6	7	13	22	35	25
15	Tacuary	26	4	12	10	28	40	24
16	Encarnacion FC	26	6	4	16	25	36	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carapegua	Deportivo Capiata
Paraguari AC	2-3 L	1-2 L
12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	1-0 W	0-0 D
Encarnacion FC	1-3 L	1-3 L
Deportivo Santaní	0-2 L	0-1 L
Fernando de la Mora	2-0 W	0-1 L
3 de Noviembre	1-0 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Carapegua (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carapegua

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
20/09	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
15/09	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
10/09	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/09	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	2-3	3	4	L
30/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
23/08	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
16/08	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
09/08	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
03/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	3	W

Deportivo Capiata

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
22/09	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-3	1-3	6	1	L
13/09	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	11	3	L
09/09	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
03/09	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	4-3	2	3	W
28/08	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	1-2	7	8	L
21/08	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
16/08	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
08/08	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-3	1-4	6	4	L
04/08	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-2	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carapegua vs Deportivo Capiata?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carapegua win (41%). Probabilities: Carapegua 41%, draw 27%, Deportivo Capiata 32%.

How many goals are expected in Carapegua vs Deportivo Capiata?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Carapegua 1.51 · Deportivo Capiata 1.3), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Carapegua vs Deportivo Capiata?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.