Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 18/10, 20:00
Prediction: FC Twente vs FC Utrecht
Team pages: FC Twente · FC Utrecht
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.41Total
FC Twente2.46
FC Utrecht0.95
1X2
FC Twente
Draw
FC Utrecht
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Twente
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
FC Utrecht
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Twente
2–1–3
FC Utrecht
(6 last)
- FC Twente0-2FC Utrecht
- FC Utrecht1-2FC Twente
- FC Utrecht1-1FC Twente
- FC Twente2-0FC Utrecht
- FC Utrecht2-1FC Twente
- FC Twente0-1FC Utrecht
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Twente 1575 · FC Utrecht 1474
| FC Twente | Draw | FC Utrecht | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 18% | 12% |
| Market | 70% | 18% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Twente (rating 1575 vs 1474).
- H2H favours FC Utrecht: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Twente | FC Utrecht | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 7.7 | 2.6 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Twente 2–1–3 FC Utrecht
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Twente | 0-2 HT 0-1 | FC Utrecht |
| 13/01/26 Netherlands Cup | FC Utrecht | 1-2 HT 1-0 | FC Twente |
| 07/12/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Utrecht | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Twente |
| 11/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Twente | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FC Utrecht |
| 01/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Utrecht | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Twente |
| 18/02/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Twente | 0-1 HT 0-1 | FC Utrecht |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | PSV | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 17 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 11 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 9 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 9 |
| 13 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 25 | 8 |
| 15 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 6 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 4 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Twente | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| PSV | 3-2 W | 1-6 L |
| FC Groningen | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Heerenveen | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 4-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Twente (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Twente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 20/09 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 09/09 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 09/08 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-5 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
FC Utrecht
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 08/09 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 30/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-6 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 15/08 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 21/05 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 3-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Twente vs FC Utrecht?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Twente win (70%). Probabilities: FC Twente 70%, draw 18%, FC Utrecht 12%.
How many goals are expected in FC Twente vs FC Utrecht?
The model expects 3.41 goals (FC Twente 2.46 · FC Utrecht 0.95), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Twente vs FC Utrecht?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.