Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 25/10, 12:15
Prediction: Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
Team pages: Fortuna Sittard · Excelsior
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.51Total
Fortuna Sittard1.85
Excelsior1.67
1X2
Fortuna Sittard
Draw
Excelsior
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Fortuna Sittard
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Excelsior
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fortuna Sittard
3–1–2
Excelsior
(6 last)
- Fortuna Sittard2-1Excelsior
- Excelsior1-0Fortuna Sittard
- Fortuna Sittard5-2Excelsior
- Excelsior2-2Fortuna Sittard
- Excelsior3-0Fortuna Sittard
- Fortuna Sittard1-0Excelsior
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fortuna Sittard 1532 · Excelsior 1498
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Fortuna Sittard: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.9 | 1.9 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.6 / 2.5 | 1.5 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortuna Sittard 3–1–2 Excelsior
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | Fortuna Sittard | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Excelsior |
| 19/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Fortuna Sittard |
| 03/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Fortuna Sittard | 5-2 HT 4-0 | Excelsior |
| 26/08/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Fortuna Sittard |
| 21/05/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Fortuna Sittard |
| 17/09/22 Netherlands Eredivisie | Fortuna Sittard | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Excelsior |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 18 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | 15 |
| 7 | FC Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 21 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 11 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 26 | 11 |
| 12 | NEC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 9 |
| 14 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 7 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fortuna Sittard | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| NEC | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Willem II | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Ajax | 1-5 L | 2-2 D |
| FC Groningen | 3-2 W | 1-5 L |
| Cambuur Leeuwarden | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| PSV | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| FC Utrecht | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Excelsior (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fortuna Sittard
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 19/09 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-2 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 15/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
Excelsior
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 11/10 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 08/09 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortuna Sittard win (41%). Probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 41%, draw 25%, Excelsior 34%.
How many goals are expected in Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
The model expects 3.51 goals (Fortuna Sittard 1.85 · Excelsior 1.67), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.