Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 25/10, 14:30
Prediction: NEC vs FC Groningen
Team pages: NEC · FC Groningen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.57Total
NEC1.88
FC Groningen1.69
1X2
NEC
Draw
FC Groningen
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
NEC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
FC Groningen
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NEC
3–1–2
FC Groningen
(6 last)
- FC Groningen2-1NEC
- NEC2-0FC Groningen
- FC Groningen2-1NEC
- NEC6-0FC Groningen
- FC Groningen0-1NEC
- NEC1-1FC Groningen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NEC 1511 · FC Groningen 1515
| NEC | Draw | FC Groningen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours NEC: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NEC | FC Groningen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 2.2 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6.5 | 1.9 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NEC 3–1–2 FC Groningen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Groningen | 2-1 HT 1-0 | NEC |
| 09/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FC Groningen |
| 08/02/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Groningen | 2-1 HT 2-0 | NEC |
| 03/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 6-0 HT 3-0 | FC Groningen |
| 25/04/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Groningen | 0-1 HT 0-0 | NEC |
| 26/08/22 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Groningen |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 18 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | 15 |
| 7 | FC Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 21 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 11 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 26 | 11 |
| 12 | NEC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 9 |
| 14 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 7 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | NEC | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Ajax | 1-1 D | 2-5 L |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Excelsior | 2-2 D | 5-1 W |
| PEC Zwolle | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NEC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 13 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 08/09 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 3 | W |
FC Groningen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 2-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 11/10 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 28/08 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 21/05 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NEC vs FC Groningen?
According to our model, the most likely result is a NEC win (41%). Probabilities: NEC 41%, draw 24%, FC Groningen 34%.
How many goals are expected in NEC vs FC Groningen?
The model expects 3.57 goals (NEC 1.88 · FC Groningen 1.69), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in NEC vs FC Groningen?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.