Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 24/10, 16:30
Prediction: FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
Team pages: FC Utrecht · PEC Zwolle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.25Total
FC Utrecht2.11
PEC Zwolle1.14
1X2
FC Utrecht
Draw
PEC Zwolle
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Utrecht
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
PEC Zwolle
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Utrecht
4–2–0
PEC Zwolle
(6 last)
- FC Utrecht1-1PEC Zwolle
- PEC Zwolle0-2FC Utrecht
- PEC Zwolle3-3FC Utrecht
- FC Utrecht1-0PEC Zwolle
- FC Utrecht5-1PEC Zwolle
- FC Utrecht3-1PEC Zwolle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Utrecht 1481 · PEC Zwolle 1428
| FC Utrecht | Draw | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Utrecht (rating 1481 vs 1428).
- H2H favours FC Utrecht: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Utrecht | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.6 | 1 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.8 | 1.6 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 2.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Utrecht 4–2–0 PEC Zwolle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Utrecht | 1-1 HT 1-0 | PEC Zwolle |
| 31/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | PEC Zwolle | 0-2 HT 0-2 | FC Utrecht |
| 01/02/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | PEC Zwolle | 3-3 HT 2-0 | FC Utrecht |
| 11/08/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Utrecht | 1-0 HT 1-0 | PEC Zwolle |
| 03/04/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Utrecht | 5-1 HT 0-0 | PEC Zwolle |
| 16/11/23 Europe Friendlies | FC Utrecht | 3-1 HT 1-1 | PEC Zwolle |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 18 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | 15 |
| 7 | FC Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 21 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 11 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 26 | 11 |
| 12 | NEC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 9 |
| 14 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 7 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Feyenoord | 0-5 L | 0-7 L |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 3-3 D | 4-1 W |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 3-3 D | 2-2 D |
| FC Groningen | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Ajax | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Utrecht (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Utrecht
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-3 | 0-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 08/09 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 30/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-6 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 15/08 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
PEC Zwolle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 11/10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 18/09 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-3 | 0-7 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 04/09 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 09/08 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Utrecht win (59%). Probabilities: FC Utrecht 59%, draw 22%, PEC Zwolle 19%.
How many goals are expected in FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
The model expects 3.25 goals (FC Utrecht 2.11 · PEC Zwolle 1.14), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.