Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 25/10, 16:45
Prediction: Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
Team pages: Sparta Rotterdam · Ajax
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.14Total
Sparta Rotterdam1.45
Ajax2.69
1X2
Sparta Rotterdam
Draw
Ajax
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Sparta Rotterdam
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Ajax
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sparta Rotterdam
0–3–3
Ajax
(6 last)
- Ajax4-0Sparta Rotterdam
- Sparta Rotterdam3-3Ajax
- Ajax1-1Sparta Rotterdam
- Sparta Rotterdam0-2Ajax
- Sparta Rotterdam2-2Ajax
- Ajax2-1Sparta Rotterdam
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sparta Rotterdam 1450 · Ajax 1601
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 18% | 63% |
| Market | 17% | 20% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax (rating 1450 vs 1601).
- H2H favours Ajax: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.5 | 2.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.6 | 3 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Rotterdam 0–3–3 Ajax
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | Ajax | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 04/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Ajax |
| 27/04/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Ajax | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 22/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Ajax |
| 17/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Ajax |
| 09/12/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Ajax | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Sparta Rotterdam |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 18 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | 15 |
| 7 | FC Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 21 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 11 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 26 | 11 |
| 12 | NEC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 9 |
| 14 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 7 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Willem II | 3-2 W | 5-1 W |
| Heerenveen | 0-4 L | 2-2 D |
| PSV | 1-4 L | 1-3 L |
| PEC Zwolle | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Excelsior | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| FC Utrecht | 3-3 D | 0-0 D |
| Telstar | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Ajax (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sparta Rotterdam
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 10/10 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 04/09 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 15 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 14/08 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
Ajax
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 5-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 15/09 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 5-1 | 14 | 0 | W |
| 12/09 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 5-1 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 16/08 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ajax win (63%). Probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 18%, draw 19%, Ajax 63%.
How many goals are expected in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
The model expects 4.14 goals (Sparta Rotterdam 1.45 · Ajax 2.69), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.