Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 25/10, 20:00

Prediction: AZ vs FC Twente

Team pages: AZ · FC Twente

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

AZ1.77

FC Twente1.47

1X2

44% 25% 31%

AZ Draw FC Twente

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AZ 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDWLD

FC Twente 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWWWDL

Head-to-head

AZ 3–2–1 FC Twente (6 last)

AZ2-2FC Twente
AZ1-1FC Twente
FC Twente1-0AZ
AZ3-2FC Twente
FC Twente2-3AZ
AZ1-0FC Twente

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AZ 1570 · FC Twente 1571

	AZ	Draw	FC Twente
Our model	44%	25%	31%
Market	44%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AZ: 3-2-1.
High corners: 15.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AZ	FC Twente
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.3	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.9	3.7 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.90

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.15▼	Bet365 2.15
X	3.75 → 3.90▲	Pinn 3.92
2	2.75 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.02 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 5.5% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +6’	2.25	3.75	2.75
07:12 +1’	2.15▼	3.90▲	2.88▲
04:20 +6’	2.15	3.90	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:23 +121’	2.17	3.83	3.03
15:26 +1’	2.19▲	3.77▼	3.04▲
13:30 +64’	2.19	3.78▲	3.04
18:14 +28’	2.16▼	3.89▲	3.02▼
18:50 +74’	2.15▼	3.94▲	3.01▼
21:03 +7’	2.15	3.92▼	3.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AZ 3–2–1 FC Twente

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Twente
03/02/26 Netherlands Cup	AZ	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Twente
30/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	1-0 HT 0-0	AZ
25/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	3-2 HT 1-2	FC Twente
14/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	2-3 HT 2-2	AZ
21/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Twente

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	31	10	23
2	AZ	9	6	2	1	20	10	20
3	PSV	9	6	1	2	27	12	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	27	12	18
5	FC Twente	9	5	2	2	17	10	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	16	17	15
7	FC Groningen	9	4	2	3	22	19	14
8	Heerenveen	9	3	3	3	15	11	12
9	Go Ahead Eagles	9	2	5	2	20	21	11
10	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	16	18	11
11	FC Utrecht	9	3	2	4	16	26	11
12	NEC	9	2	4	3	15	16	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	16	22	9
14	Cambuur Leeuwarden	9	2	3	4	13	21	9
15	PEC Zwolle	9	2	1	6	10	22	7
16	Telstar	9	1	3	5	10	18	6
17	ADO Den Haag	9	1	3	5	11	20	6
18	Willem II	9	0	2	7	9	26	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AZ	FC Twente
Cambuur Leeuwarden	2-2 D	4-1 W
Telstar	1-0 W	1-0 W
Heerenveen	3-2 W	0-1 L
Fortuna Sittard	2-0 W	1-1 D
FC Utrecht	4-1 W	1-2 L
ADO Den Haag	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AZ (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AZ

DWWWWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
10/10	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
20/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
11/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	11	1	D
06/09	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	3-2	3	3	W
29/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	5-2	8	0	W
22/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	15	2	W
15/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-1	9	6	W
08/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
17/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-3	7	2	D

FC Twente

LLWWDWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
10/10	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
20/09	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	3-2	6	4	W
12/09	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	12	4	W
09/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
06/09	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	2	2	D
30/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	4-1	9	2	W
16/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-1	6	0	W
09/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
17/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-5	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AZ vs FC Twente?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AZ win (44%). Probabilities: AZ 44%, draw 25%, FC Twente 31%.

How many goals are expected in AZ vs FC Twente?

The model expects 3.24 goals (AZ 1.77 · FC Twente 1.47), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AZ vs FC Twente?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.