Football · Argentina Championship Women · 23/09, 20:00
Prediction: Lanus (W) vs River Plate (W)
Team pages: Lanus (W) · River Plate (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Lanus (W)0.84
River Plate (W)1.61
1X2
Lanus (W)
Draw
River Plate (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Lanus (W)
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
River Plate (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lanus (W)
0–6
River Plate (W)
(6 last)
- River Plate (W)3-0Lanus (W)
- River Plate (W)2-0Lanus (W)
- River Plate (W)8-0Lanus (W)
- River Plate (W)6-0Lanus (W)
- Lanus (W)1-3River Plate (W)
- River Plate (W)2-0Lanus (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lanus (W) 1514 · River Plate (W) 1544
| Lanus (W) | Draw | River Plate (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 27% | 54% |
| Market | 19% | 26% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours River Plate (W): 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lanus (W) | River Plate (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.9 | 2.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 13/75/13% | 38/50/13% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 2.8 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lanus (W) 0–0–6 River Plate (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/26 Argentina Championship Women | River Plate (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Lanus (W) |
| 08/06/23 Argentina Championship Women | River Plate (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Lanus (W) |
| 26/02/22 Argentina Championship Women | River Plate (W) | 8-0 HT 6-0 | Lanus (W) |
| 28/11/20 Argentina Championship Women | River Plate (W) | 6-0 HT 4-0 | Lanus (W) |
| 22/02/20 Argentina Championship Women | Lanus (W) | 1-3 HT 1-2 | River Plate (W) |
| 03/03/19 Argentina Championship Women | River Plate (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Lanus (W) |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Luis FC (W) | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Banfield (W) | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Belgrano (W) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors (W) | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | San Lorenzo (W) | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Lanus (W) | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 9 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| 10 | River Plate (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Racing Club (W) | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 10 |
| 12 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
| 13 | Huracan (W) | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 7 |
| 14 | CA Independiente Women | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 6 |
| 15 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 17 | 3 |
| 16 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lanus (W) | River Plate (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe (W) | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| CA Independiente Women | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Huracan (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Belgrano (W) | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Banfield (W) | 2-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Gimnasia LP (W) | 1-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Newell's Old Boys (W) | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: River Plate (W) (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lanus (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 11/09 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-3 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 22/07 | San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/07 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 08/07 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
River Plate (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 28/07 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 17/07 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 13/07 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 08/07 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 26/06 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lanus (W) vs River Plate (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an River Plate (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Lanus (W) 19%, draw 27%, River Plate (W) 55%.
How many goals are expected in Lanus (W) vs River Plate (W)?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Lanus (W) 0.84 · River Plate (W) 1.61), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lanus (W) vs River Plate (W)?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.