Football · Argentina Championship Women · 02/10, 22:00

Prediction: Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Union Santa Fe (W)

Team pages: Ferro Carril Oeste (W) · Union Santa Fe (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Ferro Carril Oeste (W)2.09

Union Santa Fe (W)1.02

1X2

61% 23% 16%

Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Draw Union Santa Fe (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Union Santa Fe (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1–0 Union Santa Fe (W) (1 last)

Union Santa Fe (W)1-2Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1499 · Union Santa Fe (W) 1434

	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	Draw	Union Santa Fe (W)
Our model	61%	22%	17%
Market	61%	23%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferro Carril Oeste (W) (rating 1499 vs 1434).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	Union Santa Fe (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	0.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	0.8 / 2.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.90

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:08 +4’	1.48	3.90	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1–0–0 Union Santa Fe (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Argentina Championship Women	Union Santa Fe (W)	1-2 HT 0-2	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Luis FC (W)	10	8	0	2	20	11	24
2	Boca Juniors (W)	10	7	1	2	16	8	22
3	Banfield (W)	10	6	3	1	17	8	21
4	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	9	5	3	1	14	6	18
5	Belgrano (W)	10	5	2	3	18	9	17
6	San Lorenzo (W)	9	4	4	1	14	7	16
7	Social Atletico Television (W)	10	4	4	2	10	7	16
8	Lanus (W)	9	4	2	3	8	8	14
9	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	9	4	1	4	16	16	13
10	River Plate (W)	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
11	Racing Club (W)	9	3	2	4	14	10	11
12	Union Santa Fe (W)	10	2	3	5	9	18	9
13	CA Independiente Women	10	3	0	7	12	24	9
14	Huracan (W)	10	2	1	7	8	16	7
15	Gimnasia LP (W)	10	1	1	8	4	18	4
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	10	0	1	9	4	23	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	Union Santa Fe (W)
CA Independiente Women	2-3 L	1-3 L
Huracan (W)	3-2 W	1-1 D
Belgrano (W)	1-3 L	1-1 D
Banfield (W)	1-2 L	2-1 W
Gimnasia LP (W)	2-0 W	2-0 W
Social Atletico Television (W)	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	0-1	2-3	5	6	L
18/09	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	3-2	8	4	W
11/09	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
01/09	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
24/08	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
16/08	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
09/08	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
03/08	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-2	2	7	D
27/07	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
22/07	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	0-2	–	–	L

Union Santa Fe (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
19/09	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
12/09	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-3	5	6	L
07/09	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
31/08	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-3	0	5	L
22/08	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
16/08	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-1	1	0	D
09/08	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
02/08	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-1	0	4	W
27/07	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Union Santa Fe (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferro Carril Oeste (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 61%, draw 23%, Union Santa Fe (W) 16%.

How many goals are expected in Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Union Santa Fe (W)?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 2.09 · Union Santa Fe (W) 1.02), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Union Santa Fe (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.