Football · Brazil Serie A · 03/10, 23:30

Prediction: Atletico Mineiro vs Bragantino

Team pages: Atletico Mineiro · Bragantino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Atletico Mineiro1.39

Bragantino1.02

1X2

45% 29% 27%

Atletico Mineiro Draw Bragantino

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Mineiro 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDWLWD

Bragantino 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLDWLLDL

Head-to-head

Atletico Mineiro 3–1–2 Bragantino (6 last)

Atletico Mineiro2-2Bragantino
Bragantino0-1Atletico Mineiro
Bragantino1-0Atletico Mineiro
Bragantino2-0Atletico Mineiro
Atletico Mineiro2-1Bragantino
Atletico Mineiro3-0Bragantino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Mineiro 1548 · Bragantino 1483

	Atletico Mineiro	Draw	Bragantino
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Mineiro (rating 1548 vs 1483).
H2H favours Atletico Mineiro: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Mineiro	Bragantino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	2.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.10
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.50 ★
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.47

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:01 +3’	2.05	3.30	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:34 +90’	2.10	3.50	3.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Mineiro 3–1–2 Bragantino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/08/26 Copa Sudamericana	Atletico Mineiro	2-2 HT 0-1	Bragantino
13/08/26 Copa Sudamericana	Bragantino	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro
04/02/26 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Mineiro
16/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	2-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Mineiro
03/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	2-1 HT 1-0	Bragantino
22/09/24 Brazil Serie A	Atletico Mineiro	3-0 HT 1-0	Bragantino

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	57
3	Athletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	48
5	EC Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
7	Atletico Mineiro	27	11	7	9	36	32	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	38
10	Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	32
16	Vasco da Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	23
20	Chapecoense	27	3	9	15	29	53	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Mineiro	Bragantino
Fluminense	3-1 W	1-1 D
Sao Paulo	0-2 L	1-2 L
Internacional	0-0 D	3-1 W
Gremio	3-0 W	1-0 W
EC Bahia	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Mineiro (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Mineiro

WDWDWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
12/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-1	5	3	W
05/09	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
16/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	8	6	W
08/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
27/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	2	W

Bragantino

WDDLDWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
13/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
05/09	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	2-2	2-3	10	3	L
30/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
23/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
09/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
26/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
18/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	9	D
31/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Mineiro vs Bragantino?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Mineiro win (45%). Probabilities: Atletico Mineiro 45%, draw 29%, Bragantino 27%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Mineiro vs Bragantino?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Atletico Mineiro 1.39 · Bragantino 1.02), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Mineiro vs Bragantino?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.