Football · Brazil Serie A · 12/10, 21:00

Prediction: Coritiba vs Botafogo

Team pages: Coritiba · Botafogo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Coritiba1.44

Botafogo1.5

1X2

35% 28% 38%

Coritiba Draw Botafogo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Coritiba 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDWWLDLL

Botafogo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLDDWLL

Head-to-head

Coritiba 1–2–3 Botafogo (6 last)

Botafogo2-2Coritiba
Coritiba1-1Botafogo
Botafogo4-1Coritiba
Botafogo2-0Coritiba
Coritiba1-0Botafogo
Coritiba0-1Botafogo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Coritiba 1475 · Botafogo 1454

	Coritiba	Draw	Botafogo
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Botafogo: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Coritiba	Botafogo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	1.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.55 ★
2	2.63 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.58

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 5% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:09 +4’	2.55	3.30	2.63
08:40 +19’	2.63▲	3.40▲	2.50▼
02:09 +3’	2.75▲	3.40	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:43 +41’	2.67	3.53	2.57
12:06 +117’	2.63▼	3.55▲	2.59▲
21:01 +4’	2.64▲	3.55	2.58▼
22:32 +106’	2.62▼	3.55	2.60▲
09:49 +34’	2.64▲	3.55	2.58▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Coritiba 1–2–3 Botafogo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	2-2 HT 0-1	Coritiba
30/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	1-1 HT 0-0	Botafogo
30/07/23 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	4-1 HT 3-1	Coritiba
18/09/22 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	2-0 HT 0-0	Coritiba
29/05/22 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	1-0 HT 1-0	Botafogo
28/08/21 Brazil Serie B	Coritiba	0-1 HT 0-1	Botafogo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	29	18	7	4	57	25	61
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48	21	60
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48	36	51
4	Athletico Paranaense	29	14	8	7	45	34	50
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44	40	48
6	EC Bahia	29	12	10	7	43	36	46
7	Atletico Mineiro	29	12	8	9	39	34	44
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45	43	42
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35	35	39
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37	47	38
11	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34	33	37
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
13	Botafogo	29	9	8	12	42	47	35
14	Vasco da Gama	29	9	8	12	36	42	35
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34	43	33
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30	34	32
17	Internacional	29	7	10	12	32	37	31
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31	39	30
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	28	3	9	16	29	57	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Coritiba	Botafogo
Fluminense	0-4 L	1-1 D
Vasco da Gama	0-5 L	1-2 L
Athletico Paranaense	3-3 D	2-3 L
Mirassol	1-2 L	0-2 L
Cruzeiro	0-1 L	1-0 W
Bragantino	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Botafogo (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Coritiba

DLWDWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
20/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
12/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	8	8	D
06/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
01/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-2	4	4	W
24/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
16/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
09/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
31/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/07	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	6	D

Botafogo

WDLLLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
19/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
17/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
13/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
06/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
30/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
25/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-3	13	3	L
16/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
09/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
26/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Coritiba vs Botafogo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Botafogo win (38%). Probabilities: Coritiba 35%, draw 28%, Botafogo 38%.

How many goals are expected in Coritiba vs Botafogo?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Coritiba 1.44 · Botafogo 1.5), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Botafogo?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.