Football · Brazil Serie A · 13/10, 00:30
Prediction: Chapecoense vs Athletico Paranaense
Team pages: Chapecoense · Athletico Paranaense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.09Total
Chapecoense1.25
Athletico Paranaense1.84
1X2
Chapecoense
Draw
Athletico Paranaense
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Chapecoense
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Athletico Paranaense
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chapecoense
0–4–2
Athletico Paranaense
(6 last)
- Athletico Paranaense2-0Chapecoense
- Chapecoense2-3Athletico Paranaense
- Athletico Paranaense1-1Chapecoense
- Chapecoense1-1Athletico Paranaense
- Athletico Paranaense2-2Chapecoense
- Athletico Paranaense1-1Chapecoense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chapecoense 1443 · Athletico Paranaense 1541
| Chapecoense | Draw | Athletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Market | 23% | 29% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletico Paranaense (rating 1443 vs 1541).
- H2H favours Athletico Paranaense: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chapecoense | Athletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.2 | 1.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.3 | 2.2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chapecoense 0–4–2 Athletico Paranaense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Chapecoense |
| 17/09/25 Brazil Serie B | Chapecoense | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 09/05/25 Brazil Serie B | Athletico Paranaense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Chapecoense |
| 14/10/21 Brazil Serie A | Chapecoense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 28/06/21 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Chapecoense |
| 30/09/19 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Chapecoense |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 25 | 61 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 60 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 51 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 50 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 40 | 48 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 43 | 36 | 46 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 34 | 44 |
| 8 | Santos | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 45 | 43 | 42 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 35 | 39 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 47 | 38 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 33 | 37 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 44 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 42 | 47 | 35 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 36 | 42 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 34 | 43 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 34 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32 | 37 | 31 |
| 18 | Gremio | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 39 | 30 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 48 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 57 | 18 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chapecoense | Athletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Internacional | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Corinthians | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| EC Bahia | 3-3 D | 2-1 W |
| Coritiba | 1-2 L | 3-3 D |
| Santos | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 2 L | 3 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Athletico Paranaense (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chapecoense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 07/09 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 23/07 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
Athletico Paranaense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 21/09 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 06/09 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 25/08 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 09/08 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 31/07 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 25/07 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chapecoense vs Athletico Paranaense?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletico Paranaense win (49%). Probabilities: Chapecoense 24%, draw 27%, Athletico Paranaense 49%.
How many goals are expected in Chapecoense vs Athletico Paranaense?
The model expects 3.09 goals (Chapecoense 1.25 · Athletico Paranaense 1.84), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense vs Athletico Paranaense?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.