Football · Brazil Serie A · 12/10, 00:30

Prediction: EC Bahia vs Mirassol

Team pages: EC Bahia · Mirassol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

EC Bahia1.9

Mirassol1.03

1X2

56% 25% 19%

EC Bahia Draw Mirassol

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

EC Bahia 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDWWWWLL

Mirassol 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDDLWDWD

Head-to-head

EC Bahia 1–1–1 Mirassol (3 last)

Mirassol1-2EC Bahia
Mirassol5-1EC Bahia
EC Bahia1-1Mirassol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EC Bahia 1537 · Mirassol 1491

	EC Bahia	Draw	Mirassol
Our model	57%	24%	19%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Bahia (rating 1537 vs 1491).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EC Bahia	Mirassol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.70

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 12:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.69
X	3.75 → 3.70▼	Pinn 4.20 ★
2	4.75 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 3.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:10 +3’	1.67	3.75	4.75
04:05 +9’	1.67	3.75	5.50▲
08:39 +8’	1.73▲	3.70▼	5.00▼
09:09 +12’	1.70▼	3.75▲	5.25▲
12:51 +3’	1.67▼	3.70▼	5.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:43 +30’	1.72	3.97	4.55
05:41 +186’	1.71▼	4.02▲	4.55
00:31 +16’	1.73▲	4.07▲	4.62▲
08:19 +63’	1.69▼	4.18▲	4.79▲
10:50 +37’	1.69▲	4.15▼	4.77▼
12:45 +8’	1.69▼	4.20▲	4.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Bahia 1–1–1 Mirassol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	1-2 HT 1-0	EC Bahia
31/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	5-1 HT 3-0	EC Bahia
13/04/25 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-1 HT 1-1	Mirassol

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	29	18	7	4	57	25	61
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48	21	60
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48	36	51
4	Athletico Paranaense	29	14	8	7	45	34	50
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44	40	48
6	EC Bahia	29	12	10	7	43	36	46
7	Atletico Mineiro	29	12	8	9	39	34	44
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45	43	42
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35	35	39
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37	47	38
11	Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34	33	37
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
13	Botafogo	29	9	8	12	42	47	35
14	Vasco da Gama	29	9	8	12	36	42	35
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34	43	33
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30	34	32
17	Internacional	29	7	10	12	32	37	31
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31	39	30
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	28	3	9	16	29	57	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EC Bahia	Mirassol
Palmeiras	0-1 L	1-1 D
Remo	2-1 W	2-1 W
Bragantino	3-2 W	1-1 D
Vitoria	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: EC Bahia (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EC Bahia

DDDDWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
21/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
15/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
05/09	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	2-2	3-2	8	3	W
31/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	3-1	3-2	3	6	W
23/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
16/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
09/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
30/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
26/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	7	D

Mirassol

WLLDDLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
19/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
13/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	12	10	D
06/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
03/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
30/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
23/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
16/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-5	4	3	L
09/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	1	4	L
30/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EC Bahia vs Mirassol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Bahia win (56%). Probabilities: EC Bahia 56%, draw 25%, Mirassol 19%.

How many goals are expected in EC Bahia vs Mirassol?

The model expects 2.93 goals (EC Bahia 1.9 · Mirassol 1.03), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in EC Bahia vs Mirassol?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.