Football · Brazil Serie A · 11/10, 22:30
Prediction: Flamengo vs Fluminense
Team pages: Flamengo · Fluminense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Flamengo1.98
Fluminense0.76
1X2
Flamengo
Draw
Fluminense
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Flamengo
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Fluminense
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Flamengo
2–2–2
Fluminense
(6 last)
- Fluminense1-2Flamengo
- Fluminense0-0Flamengo
- Fluminense2-1Flamengo
- Fluminense2-1Flamengo
- Flamengo1-0Fluminense
- Flamengo0-0Fluminense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Flamengo 1594 · Fluminense 1545
| Flamengo | Draw | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 65% | 22% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1594 vs 1545).
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Flamengo | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.8 | 1.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.1 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 6.7 | 1.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Flamengo 2–2–2 Fluminense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Brazil Serie A | Fluminense | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Flamengo |
| 08/03/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Fluminense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Flamengo |
| 25/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Fluminense | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Flamengo |
| 20/11/25 Brazil Serie A | Fluminense | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Flamengo |
| 21/07/25 Brazil Serie A | Flamengo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Fluminense |
| 16/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca | Flamengo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Fluminense |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 25 | 61 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 48 | 21 | 60 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 51 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 50 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 40 | 48 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 43 | 36 | 46 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 34 | 44 |
| 8 | Santos | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 45 | 43 | 42 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 35 | 39 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 47 | 38 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 33 | 37 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 44 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 42 | 47 | 35 |
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 36 | 42 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 34 | 43 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 34 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32 | 37 | 31 |
| 18 | Gremio | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 39 | 30 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33 | 48 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 57 | 18 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Flamengo | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Remo | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Botafogo | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Flamengo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 20/09 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 20 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 03/09 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/08 | Vitoria Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 30/07 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
Fluminense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 20/09 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 12/09 | Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 30/07 | EC Bahia Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Gremio Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Flamengo win (65%). Probabilities: Flamengo 65%, draw 22%, Fluminense 13%.
How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Flamengo 1.98 · Fluminense 0.76), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.