Football · China Division 1 · 26/09, 13:30

Prediction: Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai

Team pages: Nantong Zhiyun · Changchun Yatai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Nantong Zhiyun1.98

Changchun Yatai1.13

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Nantong Zhiyun Draw Changchun Yatai

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Nantong Zhiyun 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDDWLDWL

Changchun Yatai 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWLWWD

Head-to-head

Nantong Zhiyun 0–2–4 Changchun Yatai (6 last)

Changchun Yatai3-2Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun2-3Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai1-1Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun0-1Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai4-0Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun0-0Changchun Yatai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nantong Zhiyun 1530 · Changchun Yatai 1499

	Nantong Zhiyun	Draw	Changchun Yatai
Our model	56%	24%	20%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Changchun Yatai: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nantong Zhiyun	Changchun Yatai
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7.4	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.70

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 09:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.60
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.87
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.12 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:44 +32’	1.60	3.70	4.50
05:30 +8’	1.65▲	3.60▼	4.33▼
06:40 +14’	1.67▲	3.60	4.20▼
09:38 +7’	1.60▼	3.70▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:12 +4’	1.62	3.70	4.75
07:27 +54’	1.64▲	3.79▲	4.92▲
09:09 +6’	1.63▼	3.83▲	4.93▲
09:16 +61’	1.70▲	3.68▼	4.57▼
10:37 +46’	1.69▼	3.71▲	4.57
08:04 +18’	1.69▼	3.73▲	4.58▲
09:43 +2’	1.60▼	3.87▲	5.12▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nantong Zhiyun 0–2–4 Changchun Yatai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/09/24 China Super League	Changchun Yatai	3-2 HT 1-2	Nantong Zhiyun
05/05/24 China Super League	Nantong Zhiyun	2-3 HT 1-1	Changchun Yatai
04/08/23 China Super League	Changchun Yatai	1-1 HT 1-0	Nantong Zhiyun
06/05/23 China Super League	Nantong Zhiyun	0-1 HT 0-1	Changchun Yatai
08/10/20 China Division 1	Changchun Yatai	4-0 HT 1-0	Nantong Zhiyun
20/09/20 China Division 1	Nantong Zhiyun	0-0 HT 0-0	Changchun Yatai

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	24	16	6	2	48	20	54
2	Guangxi Hengchen	24	13	6	5	40	26	45
3	Shenzhen Juniors	24	12	8	4	39	25	44
4	Nantong Zhiyun	23	10	9	4	31	20	39
5	Yanbian Longding	24	9	8	7	33	27	35
6	Shaanxi Union	23	9	6	8	35	26	33
7	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	24	8	7	9	22	25	31
8	Dalian K'un City	23	7	8	8	30	33	29
9	Wuxi Wugo	23	8	5	10	35	29	29
10	Ningbo Professional FC	23	9	5	9	27	29	29
11	Changchun Yatai	23	10	3	10	37	38	29
12	Suzhou Dongwu	24	7	8	9	28	33	26
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	24	4	11	9	35	46	23
14	Nanjing City	24	5	6	13	20	33	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	24	7	3	14	25	50	15
16	Foshan Nanshi	24	2	7	15	24	49	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nantong Zhiyun	Changchun Yatai
Wuxi Wugo	3-1 W	1-5 L
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-1 D	0-3 L
Shaanxi Union	4-1 W	1-2 L
Suzhou Dongwu	0-0 D	1-2 L
Nanjing City	1-1 D	2-1 W
Dingnan Ganlian FC	5-1 W	1-0 W
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Foshan Nanshi	2-1 W	6-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Nantong Zhiyun (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nantong Zhiyun

WDWDDWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	0-1	14	4	L
13/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
05/09	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
30/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-2	2-3	9	5	L
22/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	3-1	4-1	7	5	W
16/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
08/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
01/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	3-0	5-1	9	0	W
25/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
17/07	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-1	2-1	10	2	W

Changchun Yatai

LWDLLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
05/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
30/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	6	L
23/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	5-0	6-0	2	0	W
14/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
08/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
02/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
25/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-2	1-5	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nantong Zhiyun win (56%). Probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 56%, draw 24%, Changchun Yatai 20%.

How many goals are expected in Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Nantong Zhiyun 1.98 · Changchun Yatai 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.