Football · China Division 1 · 06/10, 13:30

Prediction: Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC vs Dalian K'un City

Team pages: Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC · Dalian K'un City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC1.24

Dalian K'un City1.02

1X2

40% 30% 30%

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC Draw Dalian K'un City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWWWDW

Dalian K'un City 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLWWDDWL

Head-to-head

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 0–2–1 Dalian K'un City (3 last)

Dalian K'un City0-0Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC2-2Dalian K'un City
Dalian K'un City3-1Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 1576 · Dalian K'un City 1488

	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	Draw	Dalian K'un City
Our model	40%	31%	29%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (rating 1576 vs 1488).
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	Dalian K'un City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.33 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.16

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:57 +8’	2.40	3.10	2.70
11:37 +29’	2.38▼	3.10	2.75▲
12:24 +40’	2.20▼	3.10	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:27 +38’	2.31	3.02	3.18
12:31 +33’	2.33▲	3.01▼	3.16▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 0–2–1 Dalian K'un City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 China Division 1	Dalian K'un City	0-0 HT 0-0	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
08/11/25 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Dalian K'un City
05/07/25 China Division 1	Dalian K'un City	3-1 HT 2-0	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	24	16	6	2	48	20	54
2	Guangxi Hengchen	24	13	6	5	40	26	45
3	Shenzhen Juniors	24	12	8	4	39	25	44
4	Nantong Zhiyun	24	11	9	4	33	20	42
5	Shaanxi Union	24	10	6	8	38	26	36
6	Yanbian Longding	24	9	8	7	33	27	35
7	Wuxi Wugo	24	9	5	10	36	29	32
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	24	8	7	9	22	25	31
9	Changchun Yatai	24	10	3	11	37	40	29
10	Ningbo Professional FC	24	9	5	10	27	30	29
11	Dalian K'un City	24	7	8	9	30	36	29
12	Suzhou Dongwu	24	7	8	9	28	33	26
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	24	4	11	9	35	46	23
14	Nanjing City	24	5	6	13	20	33	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	24	7	3	14	25	50	15
16	Foshan Nanshi	24	2	7	15	24	49	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	Dalian K'un City
Wuxi Wugo	2-0 W	2-1 W
Foshan Nanshi	2-1 W	0-0 D
Shaanxi Union	2-1 W	0-3 L
Nantong Zhiyun	1-1 D	3-2 W
Yanbian Longding	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

DDDWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-0	3-1	4	3	W
13/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
06/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
29/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
22/08	Dingnan Jiangxi United China Division 1	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
16/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	2-1	0	6	W
08/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
02/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
25/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
17/07	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	9	D

Dalian K'un City

DDLLWWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	2	L
18/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/09	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
05/09	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
30/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	2-0	3-2	6	5	W
22/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-1	1-3	10	5	L
08/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	11	1	L
01/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	2-1	2-2	3	5	D
26/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC vs Dalian K'un City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC win (40%). Probabilities: Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 40%, draw 30%, Dalian K'un City 30%.

How many goals are expected in Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC vs Dalian K'un City?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 1.24 · Dalian K'un City 1.02), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC vs Dalian K'un City?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.