Football · China Division 1 · 06/10, 13:00

Prediction: Changchun Yatai vs Yanbian Longding

Team pages: Changchun Yatai · Yanbian Longding

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Changchun Yatai1.6

Yanbian Longding1.26

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Changchun Yatai Draw Yanbian Longding

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Changchun Yatai 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLWWDL

Yanbian Longding 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWDLWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Changchun Yatai 0–1–0 Yanbian Longding (1 last)

Yanbian Longding2-2Changchun Yatai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changchun Yatai 1503 · Yanbian Longding 1470

	Changchun Yatai	Draw	Yanbian Longding
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changchun Yatai	Yanbian Longding
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	1.2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.32
2	3.00 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.64 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +3’	2.20	3.10	3.00
13:00 +4’	2.05▼	3.10	3.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +2’	1.99	3.32	3.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Yatai 0–1–0 Yanbian Longding

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 China Division 1	Yanbian Longding	2-2 HT 1-1	Changchun Yatai

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	24	16	6	2	48	20	54
2	Guangxi Hengchen	24	13	6	5	40	26	45
3	Shenzhen Juniors	24	12	8	4	39	25	44
4	Nantong Zhiyun	24	11	9	4	33	20	42
5	Shaanxi Union	24	10	6	8	38	26	36
6	Yanbian Longding	24	9	8	7	33	27	35
7	Wuxi Wugo	24	9	5	10	36	29	32
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	24	8	7	9	22	25	31
9	Changchun Yatai	24	10	3	11	37	40	29
10	Ningbo Professional FC	24	9	5	10	27	30	29
11	Dalian K'un City	24	7	8	9	30	36	29
12	Suzhou Dongwu	24	7	8	9	28	33	26
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	24	4	11	9	35	46	23
14	Nanjing City	24	5	6	13	20	33	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	24	7	3	14	25	50	15
16	Foshan Nanshi	24	2	7	15	24	49	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changchun Yatai	Yanbian Longding
Shenzhen Juniors	1-1 D	0-1 L
Ningbo Professional FC	2-0 W	3-2 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-3 L	1-2 L
Shaanxi Union	1-2 L	1-3 L
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	2-2 D	0-0 D
Nanjing City	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Changchun Yatai (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Changchun Yatai

WDLLWLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
19/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
05/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
30/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	6	L
23/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	5-0	6-0	2	0	W
14/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
08/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
02/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
25/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	4	3	W

Yanbian Longding

DWDLWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
12/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
05/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
29/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
22/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	3-2	1	5	W
15/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-0	3-1	0	5	W
09/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
01/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
17/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changchun Yatai vs Yanbian Longding?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Changchun Yatai win (44%). Probabilities: Changchun Yatai 44%, draw 28%, Yanbian Longding 28%.

How many goals are expected in Changchun Yatai vs Yanbian Longding?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Changchun Yatai 1.6 · Yanbian Longding 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Yanbian Longding?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.