Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 19/09, 20:00

Prediction: Union Rochefortoise vs Sporting Charleroi U23

Team pages: Union Rochefortoise · Sporting Charleroi U23

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Union Rochefortoise1.98

Sporting Charleroi U231.19

1X2

55% 23% 22%

Union Rochefortoise Draw Sporting Charleroi U23

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Rochefortoise 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Sporting Charleroi U23 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLLWDL

Head-to-head

Union Rochefortoise 0–1–1 Sporting Charleroi U23 (2 last)

Union Rochefortoise1-1Sporting Charleroi U23
Sporting Charleroi U232-1Union Rochefortoise

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Rochefortoise 1499 · Sporting Charleroi U23 1488

	Union Rochefortoise	Draw	Sporting Charleroi U23
Our model	55%	24%	22%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Rochefortoise	Sporting Charleroi U23
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.2	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.10

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.63
X	4.00 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10
2	4.10 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.34 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:47 +7’	1.61	4.00	4.10
05:00 +8’	1.61	4.10▲	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:43 +86’	1.63	4.06	4.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Rochefortoise 0–1–1 Sporting Charleroi U23

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/12/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	1-1 HT 1-1	Sporting Charleroi U23
12/10/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Sporting Charleroi U23	2-1 HT 0-1	Union Rochefortoise

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	4	4	0	0	12	2	12
2	RWD Molenbeek	4	4	0	0	7	1	12
3	Union Rochefortoise	4	3	0	1	11	5	9
4	Tubize	4	2	1	1	5	6	7
5	RCS Onhaye	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
6	Standard Liege II	4	1	1	2	5	2	4
7	Union Saint Gilloise II	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
8	Sporting Charleroi U23	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
9	RAEC Mons	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
10	ROC Charleroi	4	1	1	2	3	9	4
11	RSC Habay	4	0	1	3	3	8	1
12	FC Flenu	4	0	1	3	4	11	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Rochefortoise	Sporting Charleroi U23
Tubize	4-1 W	0-1 L
Union Saint Gilloise II	2-0 W	3-0 W
RAEC Mons	1-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Charleroi U23 (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Rochefortoise

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	4-1	9	5	W
29/08	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	4-2	4	5	W
26/08	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-0	4	8	W
10/05	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-3	2	5	L
03/05	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-3	3-5	2	2	L
25/04	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	4-1	4	5	W
18/04	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
11/04	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
28/03	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	1-2	4	4	L

Sporting Charleroi U23

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
06/09	FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-2	1	5	D
30/08	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
26/08	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
10/05	UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	5	1	L
03/05	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	3	0	L
26/04	RRC Stockay-Warfusee Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
19/04	Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
11/04	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
28/03	UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Rochefortoise vs Sporting Charleroi U23?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Rochefortoise win (55%). Probabilities: Union Rochefortoise 55%, draw 23%, Sporting Charleroi U23 22%.

How many goals are expected in Union Rochefortoise vs Sporting Charleroi U23?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Union Rochefortoise 1.98 · Sporting Charleroi U23 1.19), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Rochefortoise vs Sporting Charleroi U23?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.