Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 27/09, 15:00

Prediction: Cercle Brugge Reserves vs Tienen

Team pages: Cercle Brugge Reserves · Tienen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Cercle Brugge Reserves1.57

Tienen1.33

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Cercle Brugge Reserves Draw Tienen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cercle Brugge Reserves 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLDLWL

Tienen 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLLDLLWD

Head-to-head

Cercle Brugge Reserves 2–1–1 Tienen (4 last)

Tienen2-1Cercle Brugge Reserves
Cercle Brugge Reserves1-1Tienen
Tienen0-3Cercle Brugge Reserves
Cercle Brugge Reserves1-0Tienen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cercle Brugge Reserves 1411 · Tienen 1487

	Cercle Brugge Reserves	Draw	Tienen
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	43%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tienen (rating 1411 vs 1487).
H2H favours Cercle Brugge Reserves: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cercle Brugge Reserves	Tienen
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.6	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.50 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.20 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:35 +8’	2.35	3.50	2.50
11:53 +5’	2.10▼	3.50	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:56 +2’	2.03	3.48	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cercle Brugge Reserves 2–1–1 Tienen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tienen	2-1 HT 1-0	Cercle Brugge Reserves
12/10/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Cercle Brugge Reserves	1-1 HT 0-0	Tienen
04/04/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tienen	0-3 HT 0-1	Cercle Brugge Reserves
01/12/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Cercle Brugge Reserves	1-0 HT 0-0	Tienen

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RWD Molenbeek	5	5	0	0	8	1	15
2	RFC Meux	5	4	0	1	12	3	12
3	Union Rochefortoise	5	3	1	1	12	6	10
4	Tubize	5	3	1	1	8	7	10
5	RAEC Mons	5	2	1	2	10	10	7
6	Union Saint Gilloise II	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
7	RCS Onhaye	5	2	0	3	6	10	6
8	Sporting Charleroi U23	5	1	2	2	4	5	5
9	Standard Liege II	5	1	1	3	5	3	4
10	RSC Habay	5	1	1	3	5	9	4
11	ROC Charleroi	5	1	1	3	4	12	4
12	FC Flenu	5	0	1	4	5	13	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cercle Brugge Reserves	Tienen
Dessel Sport	1-3 L	3-4 L
Royal Knokke	2-1 W	0-2 L
OH Leuven II	0-4 L	1-2 L
Belisia Bilzen SV	0-5 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tienen (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cercle Brugge Reserves

LLDLDLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
13/09	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-3	4	3	L
30/08	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
26/04	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
18/04	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
12/04	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-5	11	1	L
28/03	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
22/03	Sporting Hasselt Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
15/03	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	10	3	L

Tienen

DWWLLDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	4-0	1	1	W
06/09	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-2	0	1	L
30/08	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-3	3-4	5	3	L
26/04	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
19/04	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
12/04	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	5	1	L
29/03	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
22/03	Diegem Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	5-1	3	2	W
13/03	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cercle Brugge Reserves vs Tienen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cercle Brugge Reserves win (42%). Probabilities: Cercle Brugge Reserves 42%, draw 26%, Tienen 32%.

How many goals are expected in Cercle Brugge Reserves vs Tienen?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Cercle Brugge Reserves 1.57 · Tienen 1.33), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge Reserves vs Tienen?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.