Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 26/09, 20:00

Prediction: Tubize vs Union Saint Gilloise II

Team pages: Tubize · Union Saint Gilloise II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Tubize1.62

Union Saint Gilloise II1.14

1X2

48% 26% 26%

Tubize Draw Union Saint Gilloise II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tubize 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWWLDW

Union Saint Gilloise II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLLWDW

Head-to-head

Tubize 4–1–0 Union Saint Gilloise II (5 last)

Tubize1-1Union Saint Gilloise II
Union Saint Gilloise II0-3Tubize
Tubize2-1Union Saint Gilloise II
Union Saint Gilloise II0-3Tubize
Tubize2-0Union Saint Gilloise II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tubize 1551 · Union Saint Gilloise II 1516

	Tubize	Draw	Union Saint Gilloise II
Our model	48%	27%	26%
Market	48%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tubize: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tubize	Union Saint Gilloise II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.4	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.85▲	Pinn 2.10 ★
X	3.75 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	4.10 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:30 +15’	1.65	3.75	4.10
14:17 +5’	1.85▲	3.50▼	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:24 +40’	2.10	3.37	3.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tubize 4–1–0 Union Saint Gilloise II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/12/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tubize	1-1 HT 0-0	Union Saint Gilloise II
18/10/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Saint Gilloise II	0-3 HT 0-1	Tubize
14/12/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tubize	2-1 HT 0-0	Union Saint Gilloise II
12/10/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Saint Gilloise II	0-3 HT 0-0	Tubize
02/09/23 Belgium Second Amateur Division ACFF	Tubize	2-0 HT 0-0	Union Saint Gilloise II

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RWD Molenbeek	5	5	0	0	8	1	15
2	RFC Meux	5	4	0	1	12	3	12
3	Union Rochefortoise	5	3	1	1	12	6	10
4	Tubize	5	3	1	1	8	7	10
5	RAEC Mons	5	2	1	2	10	10	7
6	Union Saint Gilloise II	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
7	RCS Onhaye	5	2	0	3	6	10	6
8	Sporting Charleroi U23	5	1	2	2	4	5	5
9	Standard Liege II	5	1	1	3	5	3	4
10	RSC Habay	5	1	1	3	5	9	4
11	ROC Charleroi	5	1	1	3	4	12	4
12	FC Flenu	5	0	1	4	5	13	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tubize	Union Saint Gilloise II
ROC Charleroi	3-1 W	1-1 D
Union Rochefortoise	1-4 L	0-2 L
Standard Liege II	1-0 W	1-0 W
Sporting Charleroi U23	1-0 W	0-3 L
RFC Meux	2-2 D	1-2 L
RSC Habay	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tubize (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tubize

WWDDWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-1	4	2	W
12/09	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
05/09	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-4	5	5	L
30/08	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
26/08	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
10/05	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	3-2	10	5	W
03/05	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/04	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/04	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
11/04	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	2-1	2	5	W

Union Saint Gilloise II

LWDWWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
05/09	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
29/08	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	1-2	9	4	L
26/08	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-2	3	8	L
10/05	RRC Stockay-Warfusee Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/05	Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
25/04	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
19/04	UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
11/04	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tubize vs Union Saint Gilloise II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tubize win (48%). Probabilities: Tubize 48%, draw 26%, Union Saint Gilloise II 26%.

How many goals are expected in Tubize vs Union Saint Gilloise II?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Tubize 1.62 · Union Saint Gilloise II 1.14), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tubize vs Union Saint Gilloise II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.