Football · England National League South · 29/09, 20:45

Prediction: Slough vs Ebbsfleet United

Team pages: Slough · Ebbsfleet United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Slough0.93

Ebbsfleet United2.02

1X2

16% 22% 62%

Slough Draw Ebbsfleet United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Slough 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLWL

Ebbsfleet United 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWDDW

Head-to-head

Slough 2–1–3 Ebbsfleet United (6 last)

Ebbsfleet United2-1Slough
Slough2-0Ebbsfleet United
Slough2-0Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United2-2Slough
Slough0-1Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United2-0Slough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Slough 1406 · Ebbsfleet United 1559

	Slough	Draw	Ebbsfleet United
Our model	16%	23%	62%
Market	16%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ebbsfleet United (rating 1406 vs 1559).
H2H favours Ebbsfleet United: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Slough	Ebbsfleet United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.5	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.4	3.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.20

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.82

2 (-1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 18:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.46 ★
2	1.45 → 1.44▼	Pinn 1.49

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:36 +6’	5.25	4.20	1.45
22:04 +2’	5.00▼	4.20	1.48▲
16:10 +3’	5.50▲	4.33▲	1.42▼
17:00 +8’	5.75▲	4.33	1.40▼
17:57 +10’	5.50▼	4.20▼	1.44▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:22 +48’	5.58	4.52	1.48
11:11 +53’	5.64▲	4.57▲	1.47▼
13:09 +55’	5.65▲	4.60▲	1.46▼
21:13 +53’	5.29▼	4.42▼	1.51▲
06:09 +54’	5.30▲	4.42	1.51
09:02 +2’	5.45▲	4.49▲	1.49▼
13:37 +37’	5.45	4.51▲	1.49▼
16:48 +20’	5.45	4.46▼	1.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Slough 2–1–3 Ebbsfleet United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	2-1 HT 0-0	Slough
23/08/25 England National League South	Slough	2-0 HT 1-0	Ebbsfleet United
17/10/23 England FA Cup Qualification	Slough	2-0 HT 2-0	Ebbsfleet United
14/10/23 England FA Cup Qualification	Ebbsfleet United	2-2 HT 0-1	Slough
25/03/23 England National League South	Slough	0-1 HT 0-0	Ebbsfleet United
03/12/22 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	2-0 HT 0-0	Slough

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	10	6	1	3	18	11	19
2	Dag & Red	10	6	1	3	10	7	19
3	Salisbury FC	10	5	3	2	18	7	18
4	Billericay Town	10	5	3	2	21	14	18
5	Weston Super Mare	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
6	Truro City	9	5	2	2	13	5	17
7	Dover	10	5	2	3	17	16	17
8	Dorking Wanderers	10	4	4	2	22	16	16
9	Farnham	9	5	1	3	14	12	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	4	2	4	19	11	14
11	Maidenhead Utd	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13	14	13
14	Folkestone Invicta	9	3	3	3	15	11	12
15	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9	8	11
16	Horsham	9	2	5	2	9	10	11
17	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8	13	11
18	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16	19	10
19	Braintree Town	9	3	1	5	16	22	10
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	8	15	10
21	Ebbsfleet United	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	2	2	6	11	24	8
23	Slough	9	1	0	8	9	23	3
24	Walton & Hersham	9	0	2	7	6	26	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Slough	Ebbsfleet United
Hemel Hempstead	0-2 L	0-0 D
Salisbury FC	1-5 L	1-1 D
Hampton & Richmond	3-5 L	4-0 W
Dover	3-5 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ebbsfleet United (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Slough

WLLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
12/09	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
08/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-2	1-5	4	3	L
05/09	Braintree Town England National League South	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
31/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-1	0-1	0	6	L
29/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
22/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-1	3-5	5	2	L
18/08	Farnham England National League South	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
15/08	Dover England National League South	0-3	3-5	7	2	L
25/04	Dag & Red England National League South	2-2	3-2	4	5	W

Ebbsfleet United

WWWLWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
12/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
08/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
05/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/04	Worthing England National League South	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
18/04	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
11/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
06/04	Dover England National League South	1-0	4-0	9	3	W
03/04	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
28/03	Slough England National League South	0-0	2-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Slough vs Ebbsfleet United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ebbsfleet United win (62%). Probabilities: Slough 16%, draw 22%, Ebbsfleet United 62%.

How many goals are expected in Slough vs Ebbsfleet United?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Slough 0.93 · Ebbsfleet United 2.02), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Slough vs Ebbsfleet United?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.