Football · England National League South · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Chelmsford vs Horsham

Team pages: Chelmsford · Horsham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Chelmsford1.61

Horsham1.05

1X2

50% 26% 24%

Chelmsford Draw Horsham

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Chelmsford 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

WLDDDWDDDD

Horsham 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDWWLDDL

Head-to-head

Chelmsford 2–0 Horsham (2 last)

Horsham2-3Chelmsford
Chelmsford1-0Horsham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chelmsford 1528 · Horsham 1494

	Chelmsford	Draw	Horsham
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chelmsford: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chelmsford	Horsham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.9	3.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:15 +3’	1.80	3.50	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelmsford 2–0–0 Horsham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England National League South	Horsham	2-3 HT 0-1	Chelmsford
09/08/25 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-0 HT 0-0	Horsham

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	9	6	1	2	17	9	19
2	Weston Super Mare	9	5	2	2	16	7	17
3	Dag & Red	9	5	1	3	9	7	16
4	Salisbury FC	9	4	3	2	16	7	15
5	Billericay Town	9	4	3	2	18	14	15
6	Tonbridge Angels	9	4	2	3	18	9	14
7	Truro City	8	4	2	2	11	4	14
8	Dover	9	4	2	3	15	16	14
9	Dorking Wanderers	9	3	4	2	18	13	13
10	Torquay	9	3	4	2	13	11	13
11	Farnham	8	4	1	3	11	10	13
12	Folkestone Invicta	8	3	3	2	15	9	12
13	Chesham	9	3	1	5	16	15	10
14	Chelmsford	8	1	7	0	9	8	10
15	Horsham	8	2	4	2	9	10	10
16	Hemel Hempstead	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
17	Maidenhead Utd	9	2	4	3	8	11	10
18	Braintree Town	8	3	1	4	13	18	10
19	AFC Totton	8	3	1	4	8	13	10
20	Farnborough	8	3	1	4	6	11	10
21	Hampton & Richmond	9	2	2	5	11	23	8
22	Ebbsfleet United	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
23	Slough	8	1	0	7	9	21	3
24	Walton & Hersham	8	0	1	7	4	24	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chelmsford	Horsham
Hampton & Richmond	1-1 D	2-0 W
Salisbury FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Folkestone Invicta	1-1 D	1-1 D
Chesham	2-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chelmsford

WLDDDWDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	3-2	3-3	2	5	D
05/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
29/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
15/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
08/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
25/04	Eastbourne Borough England National League South	1-3	1-3	7	4	L
18/04	Chesham England National League South	0-0	2-0	4	1	W

Horsham

LWDDWWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Chesham England National League South	0-1	1-4	2	11	L
08/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Dag & Red England National League South	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
29/08	Farnham England National League South	1-2	1-2	13	4	L
22/08	Braintree Town England National League South	1-0	2-1	9	2	W
18/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	9	W
15/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
08/08	Torquay England National League South	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
25/04	Chippenham Town England National League South	1-0	3-2	5	6	W
18/04	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	1-2	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chelmsford vs Horsham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelmsford win (50%). Probabilities: Chelmsford 50%, draw 26%, Horsham 24%.

How many goals are expected in Chelmsford vs Horsham?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Chelmsford 1.61 · Horsham 1.05), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelmsford vs Horsham?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.