Football · England National League South · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Slough vs Hemel Hempstead

Team pages: Slough · Hemel Hempstead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Slough1.16

Hemel Hempstead1.71

1X2

25% 25% 49%

Slough Draw Hemel Hempstead

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Slough 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLLLW

Hemel Hempstead 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLWLLDDD

Head-to-head

Slough 3–3 Hemel Hempstead (6 last)

Hemel Hempstead0-3Slough
Slough0-1Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead4-1Slough
Slough0-1Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead2-3Slough
Slough2-0Hemel Hempstead

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Slough 1413 · Hemel Hempstead 1464

	Slough	Draw	Hemel Hempstead
Our model	25%	26%	49%
Market	26%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hemel Hempstead (rating 1413 vs 1464).
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Slough	Hemel Hempstead
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.8	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.3	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:16 +1’	3.50	3.60	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Slough 3–0–3 Hemel Hempstead

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	0-3 HT 0-3	Slough
16/08/25 England National League South	Slough	0-1 HT 0-1	Hemel Hempstead
11/01/25 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	4-1 HT 1-0	Slough
07/09/24 England National League South	Slough	0-1 HT 0-0	Hemel Hempstead
13/04/24 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	2-3 HT 1-1	Slough
19/12/23 England National League South	Slough	2-0 HT 1-0	Hemel Hempstead

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	9	6	1	2	17	9	19
2	Weston Super Mare	9	5	2	2	16	7	17
3	Dag & Red	9	5	1	3	9	7	16
4	Salisbury FC	9	4	3	2	16	7	15
5	Billericay Town	9	4	3	2	18	14	15
6	Tonbridge Angels	9	4	2	3	18	9	14
7	Truro City	8	4	2	2	11	4	14
8	Dover	9	4	2	3	15	16	14
9	Dorking Wanderers	9	3	4	2	18	13	13
10	Torquay	9	3	4	2	13	11	13
11	Farnham	8	4	1	3	11	10	13
12	Folkestone Invicta	8	3	3	2	15	9	12
13	Chesham	9	3	1	5	16	15	10
14	Chelmsford	8	1	7	0	9	8	10
15	Horsham	8	2	4	2	9	10	10
16	Hemel Hempstead	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
17	Maidenhead Utd	9	2	4	3	8	11	10
18	Braintree Town	8	3	1	4	13	18	10
19	AFC Totton	8	3	1	4	8	13	10
20	Farnborough	8	3	1	4	6	11	10
21	Hampton & Richmond	9	2	2	5	11	23	8
22	Ebbsfleet United	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
23	Slough	8	1	0	7	9	21	3
24	Walton & Hersham	8	0	1	7	4	24	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Slough	Hemel Hempstead
Salisbury FC	1-5 L	2-1 W
Folkestone Invicta	0-2 L	0-2 L
Farnham	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hemel Hempstead (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Slough

LWLLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
08/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-2	1-5	4	3	L
05/09	Braintree Town England National League South	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
31/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-1	0-1	0	6	L
29/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
22/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-1	3-5	5	2	L
18/08	Farnham England National League South	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
15/08	Dover England National League South	0-3	3-5	7	2	L
25/04	Dag & Red England National League South	2-2	3-2	4	5	W
18/04	Enfield Town England National League South	1-0	2-5	5	2	L

Hemel Hempstead

DDWLWLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
08/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
05/09	Farnham England National League South	1-1	1-1	11	3	D
31/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
29/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
22/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	2-1	7	1	W
18/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
15/08	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
08/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
28/04	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Slough vs Hemel Hempstead?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hemel Hempstead win (49%). Probabilities: Slough 25%, draw 25%, Hemel Hempstead 49%.

How many goals are expected in Slough vs Hemel Hempstead?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Slough 1.16 · Hemel Hempstead 1.71), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Slough vs Hemel Hempstead?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.