Football · England National League South · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Dover vs AFC Totton

Team pages: Dover · AFC Totton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Dover1.65

AFC Totton1.58

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Dover Draw AFC Totton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dover 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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AFC Totton 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Dover 0–2 AFC Totton (2 last)

AFC Totton3-0Dover
Dover2-3AFC Totton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dover 1508 · AFC Totton 1457

	Dover	Draw	AFC Totton
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dover (rating 1508 vs 1457).
H2H favours AFC Totton: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dover	AFC Totton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.7	1.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
11:14 +3’	2.30	3.50	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dover 0–0–2 AFC Totton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England National League South	AFC Totton	3-0 HT 2-0	Dover
09/08/25 England National League South	Dover	2-3 HT 0-3	AFC Totton

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	9	6	1	2	17	9	19
2	Weston Super Mare	9	5	2	2	16	7	17
3	Dag & Red	9	5	1	3	9	7	16
4	Salisbury FC	9	4	3	2	16	7	15
5	Billericay Town	9	4	3	2	18	14	15
6	Tonbridge Angels	9	4	2	3	18	9	14
7	Truro City	8	4	2	2	11	4	14
8	Dover	9	4	2	3	15	16	14
9	Dorking Wanderers	9	3	4	2	18	13	13
10	Torquay	9	3	4	2	13	11	13
11	Farnham	8	4	1	3	11	10	13
12	Folkestone Invicta	8	3	3	2	15	9	12
13	Chesham	9	3	1	5	16	15	10
14	Chelmsford	8	1	7	0	9	8	10
15	Horsham	8	2	4	2	9	10	10
16	Hemel Hempstead	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
17	Maidenhead Utd	9	2	4	3	8	11	10
18	Braintree Town	8	3	1	4	13	18	10
19	AFC Totton	8	3	1	4	8	13	10
20	Farnborough	8	3	1	4	6	11	10
21	Hampton & Richmond	9	2	2	5	11	23	8
22	Ebbsfleet United	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
23	Slough	8	1	0	7	9	21	3
24	Walton & Hersham	8	0	1	7	4	24	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dover	AFC Totton
Farnborough	1-0 W	1-6 L
Maidenhead Utd	0-3 L	1-1 D
Chesham	2-2 D	0-4 L
Weston Super Mare	3-2 W	1-3 L
Slough	5-3 W	0-1 L
Billericay Town	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Dover (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dover

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Farnborough England National League South	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
08/09	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
05/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
31/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
29/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
22/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-1	3-2	8	1	W
18/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
15/08	Slough England National League South	3-0	5-3	8	2	W
08/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-1	0-2	10	2	L
25/04	Chesham England National League South	1-1	2-2	4	0	D

AFC Totton

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Slough England National League South	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
08/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
05/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	3-0	4-1	7	7	W
31/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
29/08	Chesham England National League South	0-3	0-4	6	4	L
18/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
15/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
08/08	Farnham England National League South	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/04	Farnborough England National League South	1-3	1-6	5	5	L
18/04	Eastbourne Borough England National League South	1-2	3-2	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dover vs AFC Totton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dover win (39%). Probabilities: Dover 39%, draw 25%, AFC Totton 36%.

How many goals are expected in Dover vs AFC Totton?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Dover 1.65 · AFC Totton 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dover vs AFC Totton?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.