Football · England National League South · 26/09, 16:00
Prediction: Chesham vs Maidenhead Utd
Team pages: Chesham · Maidenhead Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
Chesham1.48
Maidenhead Utd1.32
1X2
Chesham
Draw
Maidenhead Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Chesham
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Maidenhead Utd
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chesham
1–2–0
Maidenhead Utd
(3 last)
- Chesham1-1Maidenhead Utd
- Maidenhead Utd1-2Chesham
- Maidenhead Utd3-3Chesham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chesham 1500 · Maidenhead Utd 1457
| Chesham | Draw | Maidenhead Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chesham (rating 1500 vs 1457).
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chesham | Maidenhead Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.7 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.4 | 1.9 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.2 | 3.9 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chesham 1–2–0 Maidenhead Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 England National League South | Chesham | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Maidenhead Utd |
| 09/08/25 England National League South | Maidenhead Utd | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Chesham |
| 09/01/18 England County Cup | Maidenhead Utd | 3-3 HT 1-0 | Chesham |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Weston Super Mare | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Dag & Red | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Salisbury FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Billericay Town | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 15 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 9 | 14 |
| 7 | Truro City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Dover | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 14 |
| 9 | Dorking Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 13 |
| 10 | Torquay | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 11 | Farnham | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 12 |
| 13 | Chesham | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 10 |
| 14 | Chelmsford | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| 15 | Horsham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 17 | Maidenhead Utd | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| 18 | Braintree Town | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 10 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 10 |
| 20 | Farnborough | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 8 |
| 22 | Ebbsfleet United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 23 | Slough | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 3 |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chesham | Maidenhead Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Billericay Town | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Truro City | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Dover | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| AFC Totton | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Farnborough | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Maidenhead Utd (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chesham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Horsham England National League South |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 08/09 | Billericay Town England National League South |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Truro City England National League South |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 31/08 | Dover England National League South |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | AFC Totton England National League South |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Walton & Hersham England National League South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 19/08 | Farnborough England National League South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 15/08 | Braintree Town England National League South |
1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | Dover England National League South |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
Maidenhead Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Billericay Town England National League South |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 08/09 | Torquay England National League South |
0-0 | 0-4 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 05/09 | Dover England National League South |
1-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | AFC Totton England National League South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Chelmsford England National League South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Farnborough England National League South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 18/08 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Dorking Wanderers England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Truro City England National League South |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 29/04 | Dorking Wanderers England National League South |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chesham vs Maidenhead Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chesham win (40%). Probabilities: Chesham 40%, draw 27%, Maidenhead Utd 33%.
How many goals are expected in Chesham vs Maidenhead Utd?
The model expects 2.8 goals (Chesham 1.48 · Maidenhead Utd 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Chesham vs Maidenhead Utd?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.