Football · England National League South · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Tonbridge Angels vs Ebbsfleet United

Team pages: Tonbridge Angels · Ebbsfleet United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Tonbridge Angels1.29

Ebbsfleet United1.35

1X2

35% 28% 38%

Tonbridge Angels Draw Ebbsfleet United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tonbridge Angels 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDWWLD

Ebbsfleet United 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWLWDD

Head-to-head

Tonbridge Angels 1–1–4 Ebbsfleet United (6 last)

Tonbridge Angels1-2Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United1-0Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels0-3Ebbsfleet United
Tonbridge Angels0-1Ebbsfleet United
Tonbridge Angels1-1Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United1-2Tonbridge Angels

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tonbridge Angels 1514 · Ebbsfleet United 1547

	Tonbridge Angels	Draw	Ebbsfleet United
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ebbsfleet United: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tonbridge Angels	Ebbsfleet United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	3.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.30

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:14 +3’	2.55	3.30	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tonbridge Angels 1–1–4 Ebbsfleet United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	1-2 HT 0-2	Ebbsfleet United
26/12/25 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	1-0 HT 0-0	Tonbridge Angels
23/07/24 Club Friendly List	Tonbridge Angels	0-3 HT 0-3	Ebbsfleet United
07/07/23 Club Friendly List	Tonbridge Angels	0-1 HT 0-1	Ebbsfleet United
11/03/23 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	1-1 HT 0-1	Ebbsfleet United
12/11/22 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	1-2 HT 0-1	Tonbridge Angels

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	9	6	1	2	17	9	19
2	Weston Super Mare	9	5	2	2	16	7	17
3	Dag & Red	9	5	1	3	9	7	16
4	Salisbury FC	9	4	3	2	16	7	15
5	Billericay Town	9	4	3	2	18	14	15
6	Tonbridge Angels	9	4	2	3	18	9	14
7	Truro City	8	4	2	2	11	4	14
8	Dover	9	4	2	3	15	16	14
9	Dorking Wanderers	9	3	4	2	18	13	13
10	Torquay	9	3	4	2	13	11	13
11	Farnham	8	4	1	3	11	10	13
12	Folkestone Invicta	8	3	3	2	15	9	12
13	Chesham	9	3	1	5	16	15	10
14	Chelmsford	8	1	7	0	9	8	10
15	Horsham	8	2	4	2	9	10	10
16	Hemel Hempstead	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
17	Maidenhead Utd	9	2	4	3	8	11	10
18	Braintree Town	8	3	1	4	13	18	10
19	AFC Totton	8	3	1	4	8	13	10
20	Farnborough	8	3	1	4	6	11	10
21	Hampton & Richmond	9	2	2	5	11	23	8
22	Ebbsfleet United	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
23	Slough	8	1	0	7	9	21	3
24	Walton & Hersham	8	0	1	7	4	24	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tonbridge Angels	Ebbsfleet United
Hemel Hempstead	1-1 D	0-0 D
Walton & Hersham	5-1 W	2-0 W
Dover	1-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tonbridge Angels

LWLWLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
08/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
31/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	3-0	5-1	9	2	W
29/08	Billericay Town England National League South	1-2	2-2	9	6	D
22/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
18/08	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
15/08	Torquay England National League South	0-1	1-2	8	9	L
08/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	4-0	4	2	W
25/04	Torquay England National League South	0-0	1-2	3	3	L

Ebbsfleet United

LWWWLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
08/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
05/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/04	Worthing England National League South	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
18/04	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
11/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
06/04	Dover England National League South	1-0	4-0	9	3	W
03/04	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
28/03	Slough England National League South	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
21/03	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-3	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tonbridge Angels vs Ebbsfleet United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ebbsfleet United win (38%). Probabilities: Tonbridge Angels 35%, draw 28%, Ebbsfleet United 38%.

How many goals are expected in Tonbridge Angels vs Ebbsfleet United?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Tonbridge Angels 1.29 · Ebbsfleet United 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tonbridge Angels vs Ebbsfleet United?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.